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[转载] 美国大豆收货,豆农在贸易战中等待

As was widely expected, China's decision to slap 25% tariffs on US soybeans has caused orders from Chinese importers to slow to a trickle as Chinese companies are slowly finding other markets to source the crops, which are typically ground into protein meal to feed China's massive population. And in addition to Brazil, which has seen exports to China rise as it surpasses the US as the world's largest producer of soybeans, Russia's nascent soybean industry is undergoing a boomlet at the expense of American producers.
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, L2 n2 P0 {' L$ G6 j. L' Q0 Y8 l& WThe latest federal data, through mid-October, shows American soybean sales to China have declined by 94 percent from last year’s harvest. Meanwhile, Russian exports are booming, with Russian farmers expected to harvest a record 3.9 million tons in the current season that ends in 2019.
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/ D7 M- J" J8 h* t/ T2 @9 ]* s截至10月中旬的最新联邦数据显示,美国对华大豆销售较去年的下降了94%。与此同时,俄罗斯的出口正在蓬勃发展,预计俄罗斯农民将在2019年前的这个季度收获创纪录的390万吨大豆。
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And as we pointed out earlier this week, this has left North Dakotan soybean farmers in a difficult spot, as orders from their farms have slowed to a trickle.
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; c! \3 K/ p" y正如我们本周早些时候指出的那样,这让北达科坦的大豆种植者陷入了困境,因为他们的农场订单已经减缓到成涓涓细流。
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0 R$ h# x/ s  R7 O4 xAnd though Soybean farmers will receive the lion's share of $4.7 billion in payments authorized by the Department of Agriculture under its Market Facilitation Program, part of Trump's bailout for farmers, this aid is only temporary, and won't guarantee that new markets for American soybeans can be cultivated (though another $200 million has been earmarked explicitly for that purpose).
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Kevin Karel, the general manager of the Arthur Companies, which operates six grain elevators in eastern North Dakota, has started to pile one million bushels of soybeans on a clear patch of ground behind some of his grain silos. The big mound of yellowish-white beans, already one of the taller hills in this flat part of the world, will then be covered with tarps.( n  v7 ]9 J7 b, w1 ?  Y9 p

, C- a& b0 @4 @6 |/ e% r. u, [# |在北达科他州东部经营六部谷物电梯的亚瑟公司总经理凯文·卡雷尔已经开始在他的一些谷仓后面的一块空地上堆放一百万蒲式耳的大豆。那大堆黄白色的豆子,已经是这个平坦地区较高的山丘之一了,届时将被油布覆盖。* O# J! X) A* J  ^. F" J
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The tariffs have particularly hit exports from North Dakota, where the expansion of oilseed acreage was a direct result of the growth of Chinese demand. The state plants the fourth-highest number of soybeans in the U.S. and about 70 percent go to Asia, largely because of its geographic accessibility to western ports.One cooperative in North Dakota expects to store more than 2 million bushels of soybeans this year.
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! f1 |. `6 x8 ~关税尤其打击了北达科他州的出口,在那里,油籽种植面积的扩大是中国需求增长的直接结果。该州种植的大豆数量位居美国第四,大约70%销往亚洲,这主要是因为该州地理位置上可通往西部港口。北达科他州的一家合作社预计今年将储存超过200万蒲式耳的大豆。
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& w4 i1 i( B, }, @  W4 HIllinois, the largest US soybean producer, may have the biggest storage shortfall, needing as much as 100 million bushels for storing crops。! v7 [1 A9 o7 r. M% K
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Yet while the harm being done to farmers, a key constituent of Trump's base, could undermine his prospects of winning a second term in 2020, we wouldn't be surprised to hear some of his Russia-obsessed critics cite this as just one more example of how President Trump is putting Russia's interests above the US's.: u/ K" ~- |+ @' Z8 i
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评论翻译! e6 q* ~+ p& Z0 y+ `* f$ c5 o9 I$ F

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; b) }! V1 }$ e9 k5 ?7 xAll Russia agriculture produce are non GMO.
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; f/ Z/ g7 Q6 j! y$ y( N俄罗斯所有的农产品都是非转基因产品。
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8 o2 a5 [$ x& {. B: \9 _3 vCheap Chinese Crap
- K# ^0 Q0 F  t  S" {politics trumps economics in the modern world. China will soon be back in the business of buying US soybeans due to the political necessities of the situation.$ `! s# B' F9 r& e3 ]
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政治在现代世界中胜过经济学。由于形势的政治必要性,中国很快将回到购买美国大豆的行列。2 _" z  k# Q' v) C

7 @: X3 m$ Q! w8 c1 w7 d/ fCanadian Gal
7 i. ]5 q7 J+ w" `5 o: k" his means that US exports of soybeans will not just resume but probably increase, since it is a US product that is readily available to help reduce that disparity once a new agreement is reached. The Chinese ALREADY offered to buy more agricultural products in an attempt to stave off tariffs in the first place, so you know this is going to be part of the final deal. "
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. @: T' G0 G+ q# |: \“他的意思是,美国对大豆的出口不仅会恢复,而且可能会增加,因为一旦达成新的协议,这种美国产品就很容易帮助减少这种差异。中国已经主动提出购买更多的农产品,以便降低关税,所以你知道这将是最终协议的一部分。”( n' @8 Q+ D$ |2 u3 o

. }6 |' F+ B  I( c  eDon't kid yourself. That offer to buy more ag products was ages ago and Trump blew China off when they offered. You're going to need to come up with something else they need now if you want them to buy more from the US. Trump needs to get his **** together and end this game before the US loses even more markets for good.! X  V2 B( S+ T

6 Z7 C6 P! r+ P2 A7 h) _8 `& H% h不要欺骗自己。收购更多农产品的提议已经很久以前的事了,在他们提出的时候特朗普对中国吹毛求疵。如果你想让他们从美国买更多的东西,你现在就需要想出他们需要的东西。特朗普需要让他们团结起来,在美国永远失去更多市场之前结束这场游戏。
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johnnycanuck6 M% A: x9 h, Q; I9 Z
A better assessment would be Russia employed a strategy based on that saying, when life gives you lemons, make lemonade.Russia's overall grain production growth since the West / US led sanctions were imposed is really quite impressive.: g% |1 D8 H% D9 \: @/ |' [
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# b6 z/ I  @3 [$ u( w# N: oEverything US elites do just strengthens the Russia/China alliance.The US is checkmating itself.% _4 P3 ~, o- x

$ a6 A. o- i7 h. Q, h7 p# A美国精英们所做的一切只是加强了俄罗斯和中国的联盟。美国正在被(国际象棋)将死。
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& p; _3 X& j6 P1 N. `; a& n" l9 cIf there are things we don't have and can't produce, we need to learn to live without them. It's not impossible by any means. mean that we can't support quite so large a population. over generations -- reduce that population.
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Yes, part of the reason the Chinese market is so important is that the Europeans and many South Americans won't buy that ****.$ k7 m3 z0 T% _( o% u

* P5 X1 Y9 T6 o% Q* ?0 A$ e" {是的,中国市场如此重要的部分原因是欧洲人和许多南美人不会购买。- z) |; m) q2 R; E  Y% z3 N

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. i6 c8 l; m# [Sucks we are losing a soy market. Sounds like farmers are getting aid. US Treasury is getting lots of new funds via tariffs on Chinese goods. US was bankrolling $2B per month ++ on Iraq War. Maybe the trade war will work out in the coming year with China.
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6 G8 h! \, ~9 K3 F, |; g" a% I我们正在失去一个大豆市场。听起来农民们在寻求援助。美国财政部通过对中国商品征收关税来获得许多新资金。美国在伊拉克战争上每月提供2亿美元的资金。也许这场与中国的贸易战将在明年结束。! U! e7 n0 V, h- r- B$ O+ r

1 ?. v7 t3 [, p" A9 g* m, ~- TOldwood
- L; D! \! o- ]) b1 g) |2 UI mean, if they had all these beans to sell, we should assume they had customers for this crop or they wouldn't have planted them.My point is that I would assume the demand for soy internationally is relatively fixed, so why are farmers stuck with this no bid bean?
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( \) S, R  b7 ~* d0 C我的意思是,如果他们有大豆要卖,我们应该假设他们有这种作物的顾客,否则他们就不会种植它们。我认为国际上对大豆的需求是相对固定的,那么,为什么农民们被这个没有买家出价的豆子困住了呢?- O; J- q! p$ f' A6 E: h  L

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They're subsidized through corn production. That's just the feed crop. Trump just okayed new subsidies on Ethanol production.. S, {+ K$ _9 Q

( P2 J/ E+ @% ~  ^+ O他们通过玉米生产获得补贴。这只是饲料作物。特朗普刚刚开始了对乙醇生产的新补贴。( S; H+ T' b7 Q" J8 ~, F
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Canadian Gal
6 q- b3 F& h* \  jFrom what I've read, Chinese demand fell after they discovered they were overfeeding their pigs so have now reduced soy percentage in their feed down to the same standard the US uses. Other Asian countries have followed suit as I understand it, further reducing world demand. This happened after the tariffs were put in place.
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据我所知,中国在发现自己的猪被过度喂养大豆后,大豆需求降低了,因此,现在他们的饲料中大豆比例已经降低到了美国使用的相同标准。其他亚洲国家也纷纷效仿,进一步降低了世界需求。这是在关税之后发生的。9 V0 K' f. [& f* R* Q  p

, e: n3 n) o5 b! I+ Y# p6 [* k! {Brazil has already set up to DOUBLE US Soy production this year which in Brazil will be in the next 9 months. Then Russia wants in on soy. Russia is now the world's largest producer of Wheat, So is a great alternating crop to supply nitrogen to the soil so they will be giants in a few years.
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The US cut their own throats. Trump was STUPID. Even though Trump claims to be an expert in all things, he didn't grasp that the growing season above and below the equator are opposite. So when he started Toying with the Chinese, they became concerned that their supply china of soy would be jeopardized. So they quickly outsourced the entire crop and they were able to do it with Brazil that was harvesting while the US was planting. Nice work Trump you moron.
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' b& a, E+ |# m! _! z美国割断了自己的喉咙。特朗普是愚蠢的。尽管特朗普自称是万事通,但他没有意识到赤道南北的生长季节正好相反。因此,当他开始与中国人讨价还价时,中国人开始担心自己的大豆供应会受到危害。所以他们很快就在全球采购,他们可以在美国种植的时候在巴西收获。干得好,特朗普,你这个笨蛋。$ c9 D& S) H* I

- U1 G- d# o4 \) J2 t( uOldwood3 |# `$ u: s$ h
A record harvest would imply oversupply and reduced prices, regardless of China. Nothing new for farmers. Further most farmers rotate crops do as to not depleat the land. Beans are rotated in because they have nitrogen fixation in their roots, that after harvest act as fertilizer enhancing the soil for corn, sorgum or what have you. Most farmers can easily substitute crops next season to help with market fluxuations but farmers are too used to gluts and market disruptions killing profits.
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3 B5 r% J: j- F8 D5 O  G, @You have not yet learned that markets can stay illiquid longer than you can stay solvent.If there is no truce, there is either a big rescue package in the works or a lot of **** being bought on the cheap when the dust settles.' r* N2 B, P" B! t% h

( C5 `6 H3 z, R) ]5 v. v" ?你还没有意识到市场比你能保持偿债能力的时间更长。如果不停战,那么要么进行大规模的救援计划,要么在尘埃落定时被大量廉价买下。
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0 n& M. ~! b# N: b4 k2 s2 bOr use them as fertilizer for the soil and let it rot into the ground, although I'm not sure the ramifications of that would be better. I do know the soil is turning to crap from all these mass industrial farming techniques and creating another potential disaster.
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0 a  u8 {+ A% F( i* t. f' vWe need the strategic stockpile system back, we need the government bins like it was before. We have no backup in this country in case of war, natural disaster, and financial meltdown.We can starve because of Clinton I, we need a back up. Alaska created a backup system with warehouses and all that. But we need a national system for minerals and grain. It was called the strategic mineral reserve.
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4 m2 ?& h& r' S/ R1 TJust like the Chinese steel, there is too much over-capacity in the agriculture business. Dumping milk because there is too much. Dairy business is a difficult. So the government has price subsidies on milk. Same problem in Europe.   w; ?! r" X1 U- F* {

  w- G4 b* F' U; I/ f; T% c就像中国的钢铁一样,农业企业产能过剩。倾倒牛奶是因为牛奶太多了。乳业是一项困难的生意。所以政府对牛奶实行价格补贴。欧洲也有同样的问题。* [5 B2 `0 M7 P  G" B1 A8 W

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The russian agricultural sector for one has grown like +50% every year for many years already. They were importing all their food before the trade blockades... and were forced to start reclaiming their old world leadership in beef and cheeses etc.. ; I) {1 ?3 g' s* A& D
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一年来,俄罗斯农业部门的增长率已经超过了50%。他们在贸易封锁之前进口所有的食物…并被迫重新夺回他们在牛肉和奶酪等领域的领导地位。1 @. Q! v6 X0 b
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4 w. H0 ?1 r% O5 F( A0 FAnd where are the former customers for Russian, Argentinian and Brazilian beans buying now?3 f" q: |  T1 E# x+ B  Q. ]

( K, u, P" g; n7 R. m% `' p俄罗斯、阿根廷和巴西豆子的前客户现在在哪里购买?
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Zero Point6 E) w1 W9 x$ n5 T( e' [
I'm sure this has no effect on Chinese pork prices.
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9 z8 X( D, B& z1 O- l) L我敢肯定,这对中国猪肉价格没有影响。
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uhland62% h4 Y% r, [6 y7 K+ a( B
In Europe there was soy flour in bread and cold meat preparations.They are stupid if they think they can wait this out. Russia is already the biggest wheat exporter and is stepping in for soy. For China it is much better to buy from neighbour Russia than from far away US who pursue an unpredictable agenda. But China is learning to ensure they are not dependent on the US. Dealing with the neighbours is less capricious.
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在欧洲,面包和冷肉制品中都有大豆粉。如果他们认为他们可以等待,他们是愚蠢的。俄罗斯已经是最大的小麦出口国,并且正在涉足大豆市场。对中国来说,从邻国俄罗斯购买比从遥远的不可预测美国购买要好得多。但中国正在学习确保他们不依赖于美国。与邻国打交道就不会那么反复无常了。* U6 `  I5 w, x: V" L
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