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[转载] 为什么中国的电动汽车行业正在把底特律、日本和德国甩在身后?

Why China’s electric car industry isleaving Detroit, Japan and Germany in the dust.6 A$ A1 o8 h, I% K, M
-China was no good at cars. Then EVs camealong. Now the Chinese government is embracing the shift from combustion toelectric engines in a way no other country can match.
4 p) C4 d& v& |, O! J  I- ~9 \3 m0 @by Jordyn Dahl December 17, 2018
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8 U6 w; ?* T; O% }, d为什么中国的电动汽车行业正在把底特律、日本和德国甩在身后?
7 L0 }4 C, ^2 M- V——中国本不擅长制造汽车。然后电动汽车出现了。如今,中国政府正在以其他国家无法比拟的方式,拥抱从内燃机到电动机的变革。! ^& O0 z) ^+ ?! }+ H
作者:乔丁·达尔 2018年12月17日0 z) r6 U* D( \# `$ g7 h6 v7 N* t

9 m. g8 n1 J( g4 b: ^0 PAfter the Cultural Revolution of the 1960s and ’70s crippled China’s economy, the country began to open its markets to the outside world. The aim was to bring in technological know-how from abroad that domestic firms could then assimilate. By the early ’80s, foreign automakers were allowed in on the condition that they form a joint venture with a Chinese partner. These Chinese firms, by working with foreign companies, would eventually gain enough knowledge to function independently.
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在上世纪六七十年代中国经济重创后,中国开始对外开放市场。目的是从国外引进技术,然后国内公司对其加以吸收。到上世纪80年代初,外国汽车制造商获准进入中国市场,准入条件是与中国合作伙伴组建一家合资企业。通过与外国公司合作,这些中国公司最终将获得足够的知识,进而能够du立运作。
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$14,000
9 g0 ^  T& x; p0 eCost of a license plate for an internal-¬combustion car in Shanghai. s* {% i0 n# _  V
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Cost of an electric-vehicle plate in Shanghai
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14000美元——上海一辆内燃汽车牌照的价格
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0——上海一辆电动汽车牌照的价格
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Or so the theory went. Chinese-produced cars subsequently flooded the market, but they were largely cheap copycats—they looked like foreign-made cars, but the engines weren’t as good. Carmakers in the US and Europe had too much of a head start for China to catch up.
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3 {; q0 N: U' J9 v至少理论是这样的。中国制造的汽车随后充斥市场,但它们大多是廉价的仿制品——外观看起来像外国制造的汽车,但引擎却不那么好。对于中国而言,美国和欧洲的汽车制造商拥有太多的领先优势,无法迎头赶上。& Z. `4 I: k2 U2 d; b9 ^

& I; F5 p* h" [( h487
8 x6 A1 i4 v7 K+ ~5 ]4 ZNumber of EV companies that have launched in China since 2013
/ j  n/ |/ E. \Source: Bloomberg
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9 k9 ^( h7 F7 d& P自2013年以来在中国成立的电动汽车公司数量——487* u# e2 ]" m  @& }3 }0 Z& P
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For consumers, the government promised one of the most difficult things to obtain in China’s metropolises: a license plate. To combat pollution, the number of license plates issued each year is strictly limited. Beijing awards them through a lottery, but the chance of getting one in any given year is now 0.2%. Shanghai sells them at an auction with prices of over $14,000, more than the price of many domestically produced cars. Electric-vehicle plates are not only faster to get; they’re free.$ |: B5 Y9 ]8 B0 M$ P
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对于消费者来说,政府承诺了在中国大城市最难获得的东西之一:牌照。为了治理污染,每年发放的车牌数量受到严格限制。北京通过摇号来发放牌照,但是任何牌照发放年的摇号抽中概率现在只有0.2%。上海的牌照拍卖价格超过1.4万美元,超过了许多国产汽车的价格。电动汽车牌照不仅获得更快,而且还是免费的。
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2 z1 K3 B; a+ IJordyn Dahl, a freelance writer based in San Francisco, lived in Beijing from 2013 to 2018.
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+ S+ R6 O/ T) r1 J) e乔丁•达尔,自由撰稿人,2013年至2018年生活在北京,现居旧金山。" o7 ~6 |% e' g, `

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8 H2 ?8 u* U: G1 ^评论翻译
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[–]tugrumpler
4 r; b6 {2 t3 d+ `6 |5 ?Explains why they suddenly stopped exporting rare earths a few years ago.8 J; |! U" n, y' ?" L% _: p: K
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这解释了为什么他们几年前突然停止出口稀土。
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[–]demultiplexer
) e5 F5 ?. [+ J2 qthere are no rare earths in batteries, dude.7 S; R/ l% S3 Z, j6 o9 d3 ~
(nor in other parts of EVs). c7 j; w5 _% t8 P- e/ L
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电池里没有稀土,伙计。
1 T- S$ x7 H# W# ](电动汽车其他部也没有)8 |. [# p( W9 y3 H8 n

- B" y. [# i$ Q4 w# Q! _# k1 _[–]Ymherenda
& `" E+ ~+ B2 a2 ~5 x  @You're absolutely right. Didn't know that rare earths were a fixed category of elements. Thanks for telling me.
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! S% Z& A4 j1 y! o你是绝对正确的。不知道稀土是一类固定的元素。谢谢你告诉我。
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/ ?4 k2 g0 X% C- k3 w[–]nosteponsnekker ' i8 f' n4 U( ~; o+ F
The US government has little involvement in the auto industry. If anything the GM bailouts were just as bad because they kept capital in the hands of the old ICE dinosaurs that may have otherwise flowed into newer change friendly companies.
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美国政府很少涉足汽车行业。如果说有什么不同的话,那就是对通用汽车的救助也同样糟糕,因为它们把资金留在了那些“老顽固”手中,而这些“老顽固”本来可能会流向那些对变革持友好态度的新公司。
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[–]mafco[S] & f0 a* Q: o2 \, D! @
The US government has little involvement in the auto industry.
6 E7 [* y  k- xI wish that were true. The Trump administration is trying to overturn California's vehicle emissions standards, eliminate the EV tax credit and relax emissions standards. Taking the US in precisely the wrong direction regarding its future automotive industry. The moron president has also threatened revenge on GM for closing US factories... partly due to Trump's misguided tariffs.
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* ?% K6 |- K  X( f. P2 _“美国政府很少涉足汽车行业”
/ K7 w" ^7 n: M0 f& k9 S" @我希望那是真的。特朗普政府正试图推翻加州的汽车排放标准,取消电动汽车税收抵免,放松排放标准。就美国未来的汽车工业而言,美国的方向恰恰是错误的。这位白痴总统还威胁要报复通用汽车关闭美国工厂的行为……部原因在于特朗普误导的关税。
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5 o* i  ^1 J+ F9 o5 _: a[–]eff50+ ~  P2 H" a! r5 a9 p4 V: R& g1 t
You are quite outdated when it comes to the Chinese EV market. Check out cars like the BYD Tang or Yuan. Or the NIO ES8. They have batteries which are much larger than that. And the new facelift BAIC EC3 has a 31 kWh battery. And more importantly, are quite efficient.9 K* P) r* f) d
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说到中国电动汽车市场,你们已经out了。看看比亚迪唐或元之类的车。或者NIO ES8。他们的电池比那个大得多。全新改头换面的北汽EC3拥有31 kWh的电池。更重要的是,效率很高。, I$ ?( d, d8 k- ?
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[–]BoilerButtSlut
$ O) Q* U+ A9 ~- k. C) o0 t9 Y- tCheck out cars like the BYD Tang or Yuan
/ n6 W" d8 c7 \+ c  H5 N# SNeither car is considered best-selling. Neither even breaks the top 10.
) o. z/ O( w% t' uEven new cars like the Tang have seriously safety defects that wouldn't fly in a developed country.! O7 U9 F6 q5 m- O' z- p/ q5 S
If all you're going by is sales numbers and price, then yes it looks like China is eating our lunch. But as soon as you look at the bigger picture it's obvious they are at least 10 years behind and aren't competing with developed carmakers at all yet.' }! b; P$ J# h+ F; T& n/ Q
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“看看比亚迪唐或元之类的车”& r4 D5 U& C7 U# g
这两款车都不被认为是最畅销的。甚至都没有进入前10名。# y  a/ e! j% n, W- z  F
甚至像唐这样的新车也有严重的安全缺陷,在发达国家是无法上路的。  S8 I/ N2 B4 |6 {. q" W$ }' }& v
如果你只看销售数字和价格,那么是的,看起来中国正在吃掉我们的午餐。但只要你放眼全球,就会发现它们至少落后了10年,根本无法与发达汽车制造商竞争。
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[–]Em_Adespoton
+ Z2 N0 a5 d2 }6 XAm I in the wrong subreddit?
: n/ ~& r, s8 DThe reason the cars ahead of the rest of the world aren’t in the top 10 should be obvious: all there cars are being sold in China. The people buying the short range vehicles are going from riding transit to having their own car.# y# m( i8 c& u& y5 w
The Middle Class Chinese are buying up the higher end models, but due to the sheer volume of cheap cars being sold to first time owners. They don’t make the top 10.
4 o+ N8 ]; v4 ZBut if you compare the size of the supply chain and number of units sold, they’re doing better than the likes of Tesla and Chevrolet.1 @2 o/ B- H& m: X* m% P' L

/ f, ]8 Q4 c9 v  ]# F; F4 D8 Q我是不是走错主题了?
8 v. M4 t; A$ r- ~  u领先世界其他地区的汽车没有进入前10名的原因应该是显而易见的:所有这些汽车都在中国销售。购买短程汽车的人正从乘坐公共交通工具到拥有自己的汽车。
, L# p5 b* I$ S/ t; j/ S9 l: r中国中产阶级正在购买高端车型,但这完全是由于面向首次购车者的廉价汽车数量庞大。他们没有进入前10名。
# s7 a1 O( j# ~但如果你比较一下供应链的规模和销量,你会发现它们比特斯拉和雪佛兰等公司做得更好。
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It really doesn't matter if China has "hundreds" of auto manufacturers competing in the world markets. A few giants are all that's needed to disrupt the current world order. Most of those smaller companies probably have no intention of exporting anyway. China's domestic market is the world's largest EV market and appears intent on staying that way. And the country is also investing heavily in controlling the future battery supply chain, which is the most expensive component of EVs. It's notable I think that Warren Buffet is invested heavily in BYD but not Tesla.
9 C( }  z5 W) w! h& l8 Q) NI also think there is a much larger future market for lower range EVs than people think. Most people just haven't yet come to grips with how much of a price premium extra range adds.
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中国是否有“数百家”汽车制造商在世界市场上竞争并不重要。几个大企业就足以改写当前的世界秩序。这些小公司中的大多数可能根本就没有出口的打算。中国国内市场是全球最大的电动汽车市场,而且似乎有意保持这一地位。此外,中国还在大力投资,以控制未来的电池供应链。电池供应链是电动汽车最昂贵的组成部。值得注意的是,我认为巴菲特大量投资比亚迪,而不是特斯拉。
+ X3 Y- c0 J' R8 U/ y我还认为,未来的低端电动汽车市场比人们想象的要大得多。大多数人只是还没有意识到额外的价格区间会增加多少。
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[–]mafco[S]
& M7 Z- l& p: O" d% qThe Bloomberg piece though was essentially saying lots of electric car makers = advantage China.# c2 d# M" z7 E& X# L# X8 H" o
What Bloomberg piece are you talking about? This article (MIT Technology Review) is essentially saying the advantage is massive government support and the world's largest market. I've not seen anyone claim it's due to the number of startups.# }5 w9 i6 j" @, F. ~

8 Y$ I2 p9 _. `$ ^9 K* ]0 I( b不过,彭博社的这篇文章实质上是在说,有许多电动汽车制造商=中国占据优势。
! ~( d3 O. I, A% w3 g你说的是彭博社的哪篇文章?这篇文章(麻省理工技术评论)本质上是说,其优势在于政府的大力支持和世界上最大的市场。我没见过有人说这是因为创业公司的数量。8 ~0 x7 n9 Z8 ^( I5 @/ N

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But the hundreds of small engineering firms cranking out micro vehicles have little chance of ever becoming competitive.
9 h7 [$ z8 |6 V$ [) e6 RThat is the classic description about how a new market comes into existence, and how competition will make it mature. So far you've made a better argument FOR future Chinese market domination rather than against.! Z: K6 J# ]) X' X! S: D/ K  h8 f

0 D( l# X( r! w0 W, |但数百家小型工程公司生产的微型汽车几乎没有机会成为竞争对手。
* }0 ]6 m6 `1 k" n0 R( Q这是关于新市场如何形成,以及竞争如何使其成熟的经典描述。到目前为止,你提出了一个更好的理由来支持中国未来的市场主导地位,而不是反对。
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9 H6 B6 a- y; Q[–]BoilerButtSlut + _" p! M7 Y, h
No one is saying that China can't be a competitor in the future, but currently it's not even close. Their cars are at least a decade behind yet. Even in China the best-selling car brands overall aren't Chinese: they're European/American/Japanese.
: U) e7 D1 k1 k4 k3 Y9 KRegardless, western carmakers are already getting into the EV game. Pretty much everyone has EV models coming out soon. China has an advantage in commodity manufacturing for batteries and also has extreme EV subsidies (sales price of EVs there are 1/3 of sticker price because of subsidies), but they aren't there for technical development.3 u9 c* L5 j4 |' a, g* u$ ^1 B
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没有人说中国将来不可能成为竞争对手,但目前它甚至还没有接近。他们的汽车至少落后了10年。即使在中国,最畅销的汽车品牌也不是中国的:它们是欧洲/美国/日本的车。) b( J; C' ~/ P! ?" ?# K6 n* _
不管怎么讲,西方汽车制造商已经开始涉足电动汽车领域。几乎每个人都有电动汽车模型即将推出。中国在电池的大宗商品制造方面有优势,电动汽车的补贴也很极端(电动汽车的销售价格因为补贴而只有标价的1/3),但他们没有开发技术。
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8 ^$ m  I- @) ?2 wTheir cars are at least a decade behind yet.
  ~2 W5 X, r' q+ \8 d) G$ ]I think it's your stereotype that's ten years behind.
% T' I1 n/ F( x  [; z1 vwestern carmakers are already getting into the EV game.
3 [( t! |, E# d3 d$ R% X+ [Already? For the most part they are late and not yet wholeheartedly bought in. Tesla being the exception.
  L6 d- k! Q+ _1 qbut they aren't there for technical development.
% j1 {5 k9 a' NChina builds most of the world's PV panels, smartphones and electric vehicles. I don't think the country will have any problem with EVs. And it will have a lower cost structure and better supply chain as well, which are far more important in building cost-effective family EVs than tech features.
3 k2 B! I& Z! q% n, Q5 U/ c. o+ h6 FI think you may be in for some big surprises. Warren Buffet also believes that. My hope is to see the US political system have a sea change and start embracing and supporting the technologies of the future. But I'm not holding my breath.* n1 p" i( \& s
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“他们的汽车至少落后了10年”
! B- V* ?8 m5 r% t. j6 ^) p我认为这是你的刻板印象落后了十年。
/ M) u1 u2 B! r! C! d3 M- d“西方汽车制造商已经开始涉足电动汽车领域”$ I  Z6 G3 L# z9 |8 p- f
已经了吗?在很大程度上,他们迟到了,而且还没有完全进入。特斯拉是个例外。
- d, w8 [1 x* F" V+ _' y' ~/ U5 O“但他们没有开发技术”
7 T- C- N) h: [4 Y$ X中国制造了世界上大部的光伏电池板、智能手机和电动汽车。我认为中国在电动汽车方面不会有任何问题。此外,它还将拥有更低的成本结构和更好的供应链,这在打造具有成本效益的家庭电动汽车方面要比技术功能重要得多。' c6 b. S) Y9 U; l3 q6 a, u+ Q, g
我想你可能会遇到一些大惊喜。巴菲特也相信这一点。我希望看到美国的政治体制发生翻天覆地的变化,开始拥抱和支持未来的技术。但我没有屏住呼吸。
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Is it? Why aren't all these great quality Chinese cars being sold in developed countries yet?+ Y  V' t6 X1 q8 D; @# `* _( |
Because they haven't needed to. China is by far the world's largest market and the western markets have barely begun to take off. So it would be unwise to invest a lot of capital in the smaller markets until they're ready. But they are clearly now developing new models for the world markets.
. E3 [% i! ^* E- JThe production cars that will come out of this in a year or two will also be ready for export to just about anywhere. The same can't be said of Chinese EVs.
* r2 W  j# W' N( b" {0 \The ones being developed for the export market will indeed be exportable. And the western manufacturers are all planning factories in China for the Chinese market.
2 l5 r) ?; r/ n+ ?2 q# `7 kBut it's not there yet,
9 A+ a+ y4 k; }; n+ W4 ^. g8 |+ WAs I've pointed out it's dominating the world's largest EV market. You seem to forget that there's a whole world outside of the US.8 Z; P( n5 v5 _8 J8 N, l
That's manufacturing ability, technical/safety design, and good quality control.
' K: S8 @  G! I4 j4 nWhich the advanced electronics, PV and cell phone industries seem to have no problem with. And China manufactures more EVs than the rest of the world combined, so the learning curve is there.
+ ~' m* @. _' n' m- K- bTesla has been at this for over 10 years
/ e" c/ C9 \+ ZAnd Elon Musk just claimed in a 60 minutes interview that he has no clue how to mass produce automobiles and implied his projections are just guesses. But China has been at it longer than Tesla. I don't think it's going to have any problems.# y( w  L9 @1 F$ h; V* D
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“是吗?那为什么这些高质量的中国汽车还没有在发达国家销售呢?”
; G; s% M8 t! Q! f因为他们不需要。到目前为止,中国是全球最大的市场,而西方市场才刚刚开始起飞。因此,在规模较小的市场准备好之前,大举投资是不明智的。但他们显然正在为世界市场开发新的模式。
! i4 {9 y1 X4 ~6 n“一两年后生产出来的汽车也可以出口到任何地方。中国的电动汽车就不一样了”4 G" o, ^+ G- B$ b; X4 o0 j
为出口市场开发的产品确实可以出口。西方制造商都在为中国市场计划在中国建厂。1 P4 `0 L& j, f* Z/ u
“但这还没有实现”7 V4 R; g9 w. {6 G( S; z
正如我所指出的,它正主导着全球最大的电动汽车市场。你似乎忘记了美国之外还有一个完整的世界。
0 e  v# `! |: m, P8 A“这就是制造能力、技术/安全设计和良好的质量控制”
! [9 g" m* v9 g+ g5 B! k% B而先进的电子、光伏和手机行业似乎对此没有问题。中国制造的电动汽车比世界其他国家加起来还要多,所以学习曲线就在那里。
- V' g. a" ]! y+ ~“特斯拉在这方面已经做了10多年”. c9 Y/ A' e) M# A; P
并且埃隆•马斯克在接受《60钟》节目采访时表示,他不知道如何大规模生产汽车,并暗示自己的预测只是猜测。而中国在大规模生产方面的时间比特斯拉还长。我认为它不会有任何问题。
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. y) Y, Z9 e; @: ], ?% ~[–]Alimbiquated " q& A" W% u; M3 T9 J
VW is one of the major Chinese producers. They are going all in on electric, and they are starting in China. One reason VW is the world's biggest car manufacturer is that they know a thing or two about making cars.
4 ~, m2 ]4 d) Z0 M) w% rAnother point: Car markets around the word are stagnant. China is responsible for almost all the growth in recent years. If other regions start growing, they won't be the rich countries that have dominated the market to date.
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大众是中国主要汽车生产商之一。它们正在全面进军电动领域,而且是从中国开始的。大众是世界上最大的汽车制造商的一个原因在于他们对制造汽车很在行。
' k# f! D% P- Z$ `4 ~另一点:全球汽车市场停滞不前。近年来几乎所有的增长都发生在中国。如果其他地区开始增长,它们就不会是迄今主导市场的富裕国家了。8 m2 r7 X3 O9 T  z* |

) R8 ^8 Y: u  s( g[–]corporaterebel
2 [- T0 P6 g7 ]6 t* o9 U. n# OOutside the US, the Chinese cars are becoming fairly common. I see a lot of Great Wall and Chery stuff...it looks good too which is all most people care about.
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在美国以外,中国汽车正变得相当普遍。我看到很多长城和奇瑞的汽车……它看起来也不错,这也是大多数人关注的。" e; T. Y' ]0 u+ C/ S; L; a) _
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[–]zipzag
! e; H! p8 X" B& YSounds like the same thing people were saying about Japanese cars just before they began taking over global markets. I think your stereotype is a bit outdated.
5 G4 n" N9 ]: h* P0 N$ ~% C* {No. China built 1.75 million LSEV this year. These start at $1000 U.S. These vehicles give China no advantage in the actual automobile market.3 l0 _+ N( L  V1 F* J

  |( Q, u0 b( X: Q  n1 |- E3 K“就在日本汽车开始占领全球市场之前,人们对它们的评价听起来也差不多。我觉得你的刻板印象有点过时了”, a0 G( m) W6 a1 [
不。中国今年建造了175万辆低速电动汽车。这些汽车起价1000美元,在实际汽车市场上没有给中国带来任何优势。1 b0 T. X+ A9 A3 f: h2 M/ L1 o7 F+ t

4 G: v  t- H, [5 ~. ][–]bfire123 * R0 n" S0 q  u* l7 b6 z; i
those golf cars don't count against the ZEV credit system china introduces in 2019 and generally are not included when you hear that xxx thousand electric cars were sold in china.) \& H8 r. f: y  D) e
Electric cars means that at least the emissions are not important anymore if they want to export it to other countries.
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/ {" j( s& s+ g  S9 T; T+ M) {这些高尔夫球车没有计入中国2019年推出的零排放信用体系,而且当你听说中国销售了xxx万辆电动汽车时,通常也不包括在内。
# |" H" M4 s1 V( V* u2 v5 W电动汽车意味着,如果他们想出口到其他国家,排放至少不再重要。
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[–]bfire123
5 f0 b" u8 X. ?7 `4 Btotally depends on the price.
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+ o' o" x- C. H  d- N  I$ e完全取决于价格。* t& s* ?/ B) y* P

* n( f# d# D9 h* t+ S% M6 I7 p[–]mafco[S]
* U! Z8 E- s. f! v2 cThere's a great book called "The Innovator's Dilemma" by Clayton Christianson. Kind of old now but still relevant." k6 |' L% ^3 @6 V- k5 K
As much as the 'innovator's dilemma' has been written and talked about it's still very difficult for large companies to deal with. There is always conflict between bringing in the revenue with the old technology and then investing it in new technology intended to obsolete the old. Company culture is often one of the toughest obstacles to overcome. You often find that some employees can't make the transition, while others actively try to sabotage it. Good companies will eventually figure it out but it's by no means easy." W: k. `+ j( [4 J
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克莱顿•克里斯蒂安森写过一本很棒的书,名叫《创新者的困境》。现在有点老了,但仍然有意义。; V, U# i- j2 [! K/ z
尽管《创新者的困境》一书已经被写出来并被讨论过,但大公司仍然很难应对。将收入与旧技术相结合,然后将其投资于旨在淘汰旧技术的新技术,两者之间总是存在冲突。企业文化往往是最难克服的障碍之一。你经常会发现,一些员工无法完成过渡,而另一些人则积极地试图破坏这种过渡。优秀的公司最终会发现这一点,但绝非易事。6 Z# V* g+ _7 E- J8 R! i% N
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[–]agumonkey
; b8 v- ^3 o4 k. E4 e8 m" pYeah, I anthropomorphize it as a parent giving away its dreams to invest in its offsprings even though they don't really understand.
' L; e+ d2 B* L0 vIn the case of Kodak, they had skills and prototypes before almost everybody. What they (and honestly nobody) could anticipate is how computers would become the center of medias and that digital storage/display would become the norm.: Q) i: I( p8 \, I& |  I
And as a tiny side note, there was a news segment last week on millenials giving up on digital cameras and smartphones to go back to film. Digital drawbacks (subtles like obsession with count and perfection) started to show and people are wishing for less quantity and more physical things. Will Kodak brought back from the dead ? Polaroid certainly was.8 S7 u* r+ o% {+ K1 b

" E! n$ ?  F9 p9 u1 @) f! V) P, R# h& c是的,我把它拟人化了,就像父母放弃了自己的梦想,投资于自己的孩子,尽管他们并不真正理解。! s9 b) c/ r" s" S" B/ }* k5 s# s3 [
就柯达而言,他们比几乎所有人都拥有技术和原型。他们(说实话,没有人)能够预料到,电脑会如何成为媒体的中心,数字存储/显示将成为常态。4 _5 D$ u' I8 H# \8 S
顺便提一句,上周有一个新闻片段是关于千禧一代放弃数码相机和智能手机,重新回到电影时代的。数码产品的缺陷(比如对数字和完美的痴迷)开始显现,人们希望拥有更少的数量和更多的实物。柯达会起死回生吗?宝丽莱已经活过来了。$ b. i" n6 V/ n8 N7 y/ E

, k/ y$ N5 R$ Y[–]ratfaced_disciple
3 J' t2 f$ K2 ~; o- X5 Q/ ~7 e3 BI am not convinced that ICE technology is a hindrance to traditional OEMs. How does an EV cannibalize an ICE vehicle? They are both cars at the end of the day. A large percentage of Kodak's revenue came from selling and developing film. Car manufacturers don't sell oil or run gas stations and they don't even own dealerships (except for Tesla).
+ c( b+ N/ \- T, V/ _What differentiates car manufacturers from each other is product vision (and a good car is more than just its drive train) and manufacturing ability (i.e. quality/reliability/cost), and the incumbents have the upper hand in both areas.( I. O% R+ @% J# [6 B8 i1 f

, ~2 [6 z: }# d我不认为内燃汽车技术是传统代工厂商的障碍。电动汽车怎么会蚕食内燃汽车?这两种车最终都是同一辆车。而柯达的很大一部收入来自销售和冲洗胶卷。汽车制造商不卖石油,也不经营加油站,甚至没有经销商(特斯拉除外)。
: _2 z5 ~6 @# b汽车制造商之间的区别在于产品愿景(一辆好车不仅仅是它的传动系统)和制造能力(即质量/可靠性/成本),而现有的制造商在这两个领域都占据了优势。
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  G6 l- J: A, j, F; _[–]mafco[S]  d) o( Q! D* {+ Z6 ]2 \7 n
They also have a lot invested in their engines, transmissions and other powertrain components that are destined to become obsolete. How many employees need to be retrained? How many factories closed? How many layoffs? I know some old school "car guys" and the idea of building them with computers, batteries and electric motors is just completely foreign to them.' n% t3 e4 A% P
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他们还在发动机、变速箱和其他注定会过时的动力总成部件上投入了大量资金。有多少员工需要再培训?有多少工厂要倒闭?要有多少裁员?我认识一些老派的“汽车人”,用电脑、电池和电动机制造汽车的想法对他们来说是完全陌生的。
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[–]WaitformeBumblebee " ^/ T' l5 o( {' ~
Parts and maintenance revenue will be lower. EV technology means used cars will last much longer especially when battery prices go down making refurbishments and retrofits much cheaper. An electric engine is a real workhorse compared with the complexity of the ICE.
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零部件和维修收入将会下降。电动汽车技术意味着二手车的使用寿命更长,尤其是当电池价格下降时,翻新和改装的成本更低。与冰的复杂程度相比,电动引擎是一项真正的工作。) v9 M1 D. i; a' a

/ ~6 C  z! s+ G  N% w5 ]% _) c1 n1 a[–]someguy3
2 _" u6 c* z& c" C# l% K7 gPart of it is one product line cannibalizing another product line. There would be competition between the different departments, and not necessarily the good kind of competition.
2 G$ p: P; y6 ^As for ice being a hindrance, change can be very difficult for organizations. While it is still a car at the end of the line it is very different underneath the hood. While it's not impossible for them to change it's certainly more work than they would like to do.
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这种新旧更替的一部是一条产品线对另一条产品线的蚕食。不同部门之间会有竞争,不一定是好的竞争。- H- W5 C( `1 N, |/ w/ S! H
如果内燃汽车是一个障碍,那么改变对于组织来说是非常困难的。虽然它说到底仍然是一辆汽车,但引擎盖下面大相径庭。虽然对他们来说改变并不是不可能的,但肯定比他们想做的要多。
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( J# K8 q. K3 `* v9 J' m$ n[–]relevant_rhino 9 a1 w- H4 ^4 E6 a# Q6 s5 V
They don't sell gasoline but they do sell maintenance. Oil changes, new breaks, spark plugs and much more.
+ X: r7 B  Y/ X$ `1 |# ~An electric car has way less part and need way less maintenance.4 X4 z: R+ O+ O  H: Y! Z

5 E8 C6 O  {7 C9 N他们不卖汽油,但他们卖保养。换油、新刹车、火花塞等等。% a: I& ~9 e" J4 S( Z
电动汽车的部件少得多,需要的保养也少得多。! [- u, @8 B6 R

5 @' J/ g0 |1 E- ?" `[–]mafco[S]
5 B0 Q1 p4 {4 d# d% Y& |  zAnd it's pushing a disruptive new technology.
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而且它正在推动一项d覆性的新技术。
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+ I* F3 X2 h, ]4 ?[–]shadows888. r' u/ V6 c# d0 l5 }: f
and china have the home market to defend it's tech titans from threats. like so what if huawei can't sell phones in the US? it probability makes 80% of it's revenue from China itself.
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中国也有本土市场保护其科技巨头免受威胁。如果华为不能在美国销售手机呢?它80%的收入可能来自中国。
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- H  u* @+ z& X, N" E; q9 n[–]XenosphereWarrior[S]
  N  J- {9 ~# `& ]  lFrom all this, it looks to me that the issue is NOT so much if they cannot sell to others, but rather, more if they cannot buy certain items. All the more reason to pursue complete independence throughout the entire supply chain.) c4 O. P/ s" {1 e7 k
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从这一切看来,在我看来,问题不在于他们不能卖给别人,而更在于他们不能买某些东西。更有理由追求整个供应链的完全du立。' c/ r. o; q' c' \  Q" H2 \7 g
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[–]ohmygawd3216 w9 T3 I2 W- [0 X! B
Exactly. They need to close the gap soon. This is their weak point. And the people that hold the cards are the US and it's bitches Japan and Korea.
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3 \3 e  x# A' P/ S. s1 m' t完全正确。他们需要尽快缩小差距。这是他们的弱点。持牌的是美国,日本和韩国。
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[–]tt598
+ o/ V7 Q9 G1 Q; C' FThe trade war might be timed right to kill any chance Tesla has in China. NIO's SUV costs half of the Model X, European car review sites are positive about it. Consumers won't accept paying double the price just for protectionism.
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这场贸易战的时机或许恰到好处,足以扼杀特斯拉在中国的任何机会。NIO的SUV价格是Model X的一半,欧洲汽车评论网站对此持肯定态度。消费者不会仅仅为了保护主义而付出双倍的价格。+ _. q; j6 o$ @+ s3 S

: r: ]  G0 C. p( C9 P6 n[–]kryptkeeperkoop
9 e) I( Y/ L" h' RElectric cars pollute the environment 10x than a normal car." C6 ]3 G8 p- e8 d6 x, u: w# l
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电动汽车对环境的污染是普通汽车的10倍。- r; |& w" N- }  h. S) K
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[–]WhenInDoubt_GoogleIt & w& @' N  L2 `! j# V4 \
Why do you say that?# R& ^$ Y1 u+ o3 d1 ]; z: g. X  s

2 C8 @. u3 n5 q, c7 _  I9 O3 U0 o扯啥呢?
3 d( @0 |* Z5 A0 J/ O( Q% L" `. ?, W  W0 a. C
[–]kryptkeeperkoop
6 e# I2 }2 X7 s" x* YBecause the energy they are using most of the time comes from coal, or other non-renewable resources. The resources it takes to mine for coal and produce energy from it are far greater than that of oil/gasoline. there’s some more recent studies aswell but I encourage you to research on your own about environmental issues if you claim you care about them, many things today are not being tackled properly.& V  M: S0 Y* k7 t' h
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因为他们大部时间使用的能源来自煤炭或其他不可再生资源。开采煤和从中生产能源所需要的资源远远大于石油/汽油。最近也有一些研究,但我鼓励你们自己研究环境问题,如果你们声称关心环境问题,今天很多问题都没有得到妥善解决。/ l! P4 q8 W9 J: A: Z
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[–]myweed1esbigger 8 A. Q) B* u4 i0 I4 X9 h, t
Because the energy they are using most of the time comes from coal, or other non-renewable resources.
) w! |6 s! R- ?  k4 f7 Q9 |+ oHow is it any different from a regular car? They all take energy to build, but EV’s don’t use gas and hopefully use renewables to charge.
# }: W  O: x( X! y7 n. a& T2 cThe resources it takes to mine for coal and produce energy from it are far greater than that of oil/gasoline. there’s some more recent studies aswell but I encourage you to research on your own about environmental issues if you claim you care about them, many things today are not being tackled properly.1 w/ Q" O; h% L
So some power utilities are still coal. This doesn’t mean we should abandon EV’s, it means we should hurry the hell up on solar, wind and pumped hydro or other storage for our grids.  M! O9 l# P! `3 q

) P8 s  g8 v) P“因为他们大部时间使用的能源来自煤炭或其他不可再生资源”7 W4 u# m6 z3 l1 @, {
这和普通汽车有什么不同?它们都需要能源来建造,但电动汽车不使用天然气,希望使用可再生能源来充电。
4 p4 w3 D. ^% r“开采煤和从中生产能源所需要的资源远远大于石油/汽油。最近也有一些研究,但我鼓励你们自己研究环境问题,如果你们声称关心环境问题,今天很多问题都没有得到妥善解决”0 ~9 ]8 K4 P7 l
因此,一些电力设施仍然是煤炭发电。这并不意味着我们应该放弃电动汽车,这意味着我们应该加快太阳能、风能、抽水蓄能或其他储存电网的方式。
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6 L/ H3 f4 Q) x4 N6 o[–]StK84
$ N: t" M2 a9 `# fI don't know how you manage to put that much bullshit into one single post. You don't even know what air quality in China means. Did you even visit a Chinese city?* e1 k! o3 S7 y

  D+ n5 Y2 B$ X1 n2 T我不知道你是怎么把这么多鬼话放到一个帖子里的。你甚至不知道中国的空气质量意味着什么。你去过中国的城市吗?& ^5 s/ z4 C  W( b4 [5 P* |) P

% U3 Z) k, N# q+ Z0 V" Y! L[–]ubermoxi 4 H. J0 K/ C2 s7 X0 w/ H/ [% u3 g
Sounds like they are inner city go karts.
9 o: e, B: s8 G' O0 [: u“These best-sellers run between 100-125 miles on full battery, while top speeds log at 60-75 mph.”
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% _2 B* V9 X: d1 A' I听起来它是内城的卡丁车。5 o( }% v0 j: i9 {' `2 P6 F5 n
“这些畅销电动车的电池续航里程为100至125英里,而最高时速为60至75英里。”
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! C* B3 J# w$ [3 ][–]myweed1esbigger  O8 a& L1 }5 V2 c6 P# A; d- w
More then good enough for the average city commuter.. a) c/ A8 V9 z. G

; k$ ^; }1 Q. D4 s! u8 J/ |. p5 n$ u对于普通的城市通勤者来说已经足够好了。
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9 K: J" M& ~6 l. \0 c! \! Y5 {[–]ubermoxi   w& F$ X5 ^# G# S3 w) n
Yup, exactly. They are designed for the super urban Chinese cities. An average big city probably has more people than your average American state.
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是的,没错。它们是为中国超级城市设计的。一个大城市的平均人口可能比你美国的普通州还要多2 H" H# P# E: }1 F) l4 Q0 [4 n

. H" Q- d  }/ i7 i( U% e[–]jphamlore
5 t; L/ D% V0 S+ u4 t, {. DNorway has the cheapest hydroelectric power in the world -- much more than they can use. Fortunately their grid is connected to the rest of Europe so they can sell it.  C0 _) P; }2 g; o: T
If any country should go all-in on the limits of electric transport, it's Norway.
$ I( I" V) [: M( }I'm more surprised all of the Nordic countries aren't considering not a universal basic income, but a universal guarantee anyone at any age can work towards a free equivalent of a PhD education, especially in important technological areas for the future.% F% i; L6 x1 i7 O( Y! M

3 P) b# z5 Q; w2 M挪威拥有世界上最便宜的水电——远远超过了他们的用电量。幸运的是,他们的电网与欧洲其他地区相连,这样他们就可以出售电网了。4 u# V& q, m( `
如果有哪个国家应该在电力运输方面全力以赴,那就是挪威。/ F5 w% q  P% c) A. a4 a
更让我吃惊的是,所有北欧国家都没有考虑普遍的基本收入,而是普遍保证任何年龄的人都能获得相当于博士学位的免费教育,尤其是在未来重要的技术领域。
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[–]cybercuzco
+ j# l" H3 P/ z) A: OAmerica has 10 cities with a million people or greater. China has 100+. Imagine if every city larger than Boise Idaho was suddenly as big as Dallas.
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美国有10个人口超过百万的城市。中国有100 +。想象一下,如果每个比爱达荷州博伊西大的城市突然都像达拉斯一样大。* t0 Q5 Y& x/ I& A

$ r# z3 Z6 y& z) r% Q[–]ubermoxi * w$ J, i# ]; m
Yeah, even in a large city like LA, it’s still not as urban as your typical large Asian city. Most American cities are very spread out.
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是的,即使在像洛杉矶这样的大城市,它也不像典型的亚洲大城市那么城市化。大多数美国城市布很广。
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( H$ G/ p  N+ e4 [" _[–]modsarevirgins 1 s. ^2 g0 H8 \2 s  s
100 mile range is a go kart? isnt that what the nissan leaf's range is.6 [; E* V0 d; ?7 }4 R

5 @, o/ b" M" j" q1 O, l" v100英里的距离是卡丁车吗?这难道不是日产聆风的系列吗?$ x3 f8 S  ~. S- R5 b
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[–]ubermoxi + c# [. B6 ~/ I. Y, s
Yes, the original Leaf has about the same size battery as some of the top selling Chinese EV. But Leaf suffered from severe range reduction due to lack of active battery thermal management. And I don’t know if the range advertised is same as the EPA tested range.
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是的,聆风最初的电池容量和中国一些最畅销的电动汽车差不多。但是由于缺乏对电池的主动热管理,聆风的续航里程严重下降。我不知道宣传的范围是否和环保局测试的范围一样。
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[–]CantBanMeAgain 3 J+ h# O* ~( N* y) n8 q3 e4 W
How many of them actually last long enough to be worth the money? I'm not buying their cars if the battery only holds a charge for a few hours after a year....
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$ H4 J( @9 [! d这些电动车中有多少能坚持到值得花钱的地步?我不会购买他们的汽车,如果电池在一年之后只能续航几个小时的话……
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; A! p+ |; }1 X* ~1 y[–]DerekakaDerek   W' _% W1 ?: q5 p9 C$ L! \
China now makes more propaganda than every other country COMBINED
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中国现在做的宣传比其他所有国家加起来还要多。. @! A% e7 w5 X) q2 G
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[–]jphamlore ! R- c" J5 X! y  _
China also leads the world, by I think an order of magnitude, in the installation of solar water heaters.7 p, x0 g8 e/ f8 {# L# m

5 n2 o* y  w9 ?/ w7 e+ q在安装太阳能热水器方面,中国也领先世界一个数量级。
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0 U- h; k0 p1 o3 j[–]OliverSparrow
9 v4 v9 c5 m& a% \; XSo either you breath ICE emissions or you breathe coal fired power plant emissions. Given the universality of smoking and China's age profile, this will manage the problem of their non-existent pensions.
2 i0 r/ m: s* d2 xNote that an ICE engine is about 30% efficient, but so is a thermal coal power station. You might as well have coal fired cars.: t( Z3 p2 T0 i2 Y( g1 w4 A( h
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所以你要么呼吸内燃汽车的尾气,要么呼吸燃煤发电厂的废气。鉴于吸烟的普遍性和中国的年龄状况,这将解决他们根本没有养老金的问题。
2 Q5 [9 L+ e+ e$ {2 p+ i请注意,内燃汽车引擎的效率约为30%,而热煤发电站也是如此。你还不如买辆烧煤的汽车。  m' b7 }9 `2 I

0 |& o5 _' A1 z( \! N! i7 _[–]ChuckieArUrlar 9 J# F; C$ j* u3 n& m8 w
How can you make a comment like this and completely fail to understand how renewable energy sources will shortly overtake coal?
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4 y$ d2 h+ @7 ]: P! d! m你怎么能这样评论,却完全不明白可再生能源将如何在短时间内超越煤炭?# F' s, q5 l# i" V' O/ n

5 z& z8 P* T  }! a7 ]% l[–]OliverSparrow 5 u2 |# T, e, B2 `, Q/ g/ h. j
How can you make a comment that completely fails to note China's current energy economy? It s 62.8% dependent on fossil inputs, 14.1% on new renewables.
( c' M: m/ f0 T5 G: t! K5 B' W! vThe problem with this subReddit is that it is inhabited and patrolled by ideologues such as yourself, rather than people interested in the future but grounded in the realities of the present.
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你怎么能说完全没有注意到中国当前的能源经济?62.8%依赖化石燃料,14.1%依赖新可再生能源。
9 D% U  j! R" kreddit这个版块的问题在于,活跃在这里、在这里游荡的都是像你这样的空想家,而不是那些对未来感兴趣、但立足于现实的人。
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  a9 [% R1 T6 g4 h/ o' e, e[–]malbecman $ ]! r( r2 C8 [3 @9 l9 P2 `
Interesting article. I didnt realize a lot of those factoids such as China having plans for 3x greater battery production vs the rest of the world or that 487 EV based companies were started there (I assume they're talking about the whole supply chain).6 T4 E5 X3 n: ?% D( Z; T
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有趣的文章。我没有意识到许多事实,比如中国计划将电池产量提高3倍,超过世界其他地区,或者487家电动汽车公司是在那里成立的(我想他们是在谈论整个供应链)。
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/ d, n% _6 V6 d4 S4 m[–]t1ll
' p. G1 W2 S! Q6 N2 d* X( q' SNo, they’re actually referring to OEMs that claim to release an EV...8 d# o, L) Y  h+ N4 F

1 u1 S& v! o, \3 L- D7 m2 O不,他们实际上指的是声称要发布电动汽车的代工厂商……: \% L8 k! v/ k1 c1 S
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[–]Trades46Outlander PHEV/Fusion Energi (Mondeo plug-in hybrid) . F: N2 m% }  z5 l: `
You can disagree with the Chinese government and politics, but there's no question they are by far the most supportive in terms of pushing EV to realizing "made in China 2025". Most governments preach about ZEV regulations, but only China is moving quickly to try and achieve it with their own means.4 e% E4 _  f* n
Looking at how good cars like Nio and BYD are, I can't wait to take one for a spin soon in North America.7 [7 }  a4 P/ N; c* r* g" G

6 u6 i6 K3 Z6 s5 L1 P你可以不赞意中国政府和政治,但毫无疑问,在推动电动汽车实现“中国制造2025”方面,中国政府和政治是最支持电动汽车的。大多数政府都在鼓吹零排放车辆法规,但只有中国正迅速采取行动,试图用自己的手段实现这一目标。4 G( r! x( P! \
看看Nio和比亚迪这样的好车,我迫不及待地想很快在北美买一辆。
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[–]austai 2 F) K1 V4 i0 f: p3 n! j. C( a% U: g
Yep, they know it’s a way to leap frog all the current automakers into the next big thing, while everyone else is stuck with the legacy companies.
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是的,他们知道这是一种所有现有的汽车制造商进入下一个大事.件跳跃的方式,而其他所有国家都被困在传统公司。, V, S# C; m. m& i+ A3 x  n5 o
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[–]clockwork_coder, V# K, K- ~+ Z3 C+ `
You mean that same "beguiling" friend that started those EV tax incentives that directly led to where we are now and that Trump is now trying to kill? The same one who started funding green energy initiatives that led to drastic reductions in cost?
% Z% y4 X6 F4 p3 _Sure, not much progress at all.8 n- w, @5 d2 S+ A
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你是说那个“伪”的朋友启动了电动汽车税收优惠政策,直接导致了我们现在的处境,而特朗普现在正试图干掉他?是谁开始资助绿色能源计划,从而大幅降低了成本?/ `2 k5 L5 N( R6 K- b1 C$ Y0 }
当然,进展不大。2 H4 A: b2 L$ p" C7 ?# |2 s2 G% F
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[–]duke_of_alinor, M6 z  U) P7 y* }  D$ l
What he really needed to do, and had the support for, was raise gasoline taxes. Compare with EV numbers now. And why limit the number of EVs? But he sure talked a good line.
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/ Y5 L* i9 l8 ^! S! l& g9 v他真正需要做的,也是得到支持的,是提高汽油税。和现在的电动汽车数量相比。为什么要限制电动汽车的数量?但是他说得很好。1 q: G2 y# H' Q1 B$ W7 H+ Z
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[–]I8ASaleen
+ ]1 o' O2 {/ T; C6 `Good luck with that Social Credit System.
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$ W$ p. l$ f; D& d4 T1 `9 s2 l祝社会信用体系好运。$ |. P: F0 s7 J+ C7 Z/ A6 s
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[–]Zansobar
- m7 s5 \. }  E( b. nI believe China is moving so fast in the EV direction due to military reasons. China is preparing for war with the West and knows if their economy is dependent upon oil they can easily be blockaded, but if it's electricity that can be produced domestically in a myriad of ways.& q5 x) k+ D! F3 U) A/ ~! U
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我相信,由于军事原因,中国在电动汽车领域的发展速度非常快。中国正准备与西方开战,并且他们知道他们的经济是否依赖于石油,他们能很容易就被封锁,但如果是在国内以多种方式生产电力的话,情况就不一样了。
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[–]carrywonderwod - ]3 i0 S: U7 ]$ O9 P) l0 A
They already manufacture the lions share of the worlds technology and batteries. It only makes sense they could do this.
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他们已经占据了世界上最大的技术和电池制造份额。他们(在电动汽车行业)能够做到这种地步也是说得通的。& b, J. r' Y4 v/ A7 F0 z

6 @7 t: R  S4 B[–]hs123103 $ m1 H3 o$ Y5 n3 r
Yes, and more reason that this is the beginning of the End for the Oil Industry, despite its pathetic political struggle and the US, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Russia trying to postpone the pain, as they did during the last climate change common announcement.+ F& M  ]2 X4 v, J
The Social and Political consequences are colossal and OPEC is only there in name.2 e& b- R4 P3 ^9 g/ j. K

8 J6 _$ @2 p; l6 R4 E是的,更重要的原因在于,这是石油行业终结的开始,尽管它经历了可悲的政治斗争,美国、沙特阿拉伯、科威特和俄罗斯试图延长这种痛苦,就像它们在上一次气候变化共同声明中所做的那样。
/ x6 t% p: O0 h  R( l, ?其社会和政治后果是巨大的,而欧佩克只是名义上存在而已。9 D! f' E8 M( u! t% z
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[–]clever_goat ' t% k0 R8 F; {  I
Cars are a significant contributor to the demand for oil, but fossil fuels provide the high energy output necessary for industrial application. Development of the EV market will considerably weaken it, but won't kill it.
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汽车是对石油需求的重要贡献,但化石燃料提供了工业应用所必需的高能源产出。电动汽车市场的发展将大大削弱它,但不会扼杀它。
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) @$ `, z% b/ b: Z[–]ovirt001 2 t9 P0 E" [7 f+ H
China was no good at cars. Then EVs came along.0 t+ [- R, b. g! ?2 S
China still isn't particularly "good at cars". Flooding the local market with ~100km-range EVs is hardly taking the world by storm. Of course the article completely ignores other western startups like Bollinger and Rivian.
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“中国本不擅长制造汽车。然后电动汽车出现了”" O6 s* H9 h8 B. a
中国仍然不是特别“擅长汽车”。向当地市场大量供应100公里范围的电动汽车,很难在全球掀起一场风暴。当然,这篇文章完全忽略了其他西方创业公司,比如博林格和里维安。
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( 本文已被整理选入“国外译帖”栏目,欢迎大家访问:http://www.kanshij.com/community/country/american/16913.html  )
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