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[转载] 越南有可能在不久的将来发展得像中国日本韩国一样吗?

Is it possible that in the near future, Vietnam will be like China, Japan, or South Korea?
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8 R% x+ x/ i( ]* l( j1 S) D' \越南有可能在不久的将来发展得像中国日本韩国一样吗?3 t. T3 ]6 r" l& A! ]; H
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5 H' W7 `& [% {9 q评论翻译
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Richard Seeto, because of my interest in its history and the way it has been exploited & rubbis7 s: Y$ P2 }5 c4 B
As I have written before, nothing is impossible in this world.3 M1 ~. V# q* r  C
However, for a country such as Vietnam, in order to develop itself like China, Japan or South Korea. it has to practice self control, self discipline and work like heck like China when she was poor and penniless after the rape of Japan’s horrendous invasion and destruction of the country and prior to that by the combined European and American rapine.9 o4 ^5 k# F0 m& T
In a way, Vietnam suffered the same horrors as China because of the senseless invasion by America and its bribed allies of Australia, Japan, Korea and others who collectively killed and destroyed with reckless abandon and that which they cannot destroy, poisoned; which results and effects are still being felt in rural cities such as Hue with many disfigured unborn for which the invaders and destroyers refused to take responsibility to this day.
/ E& C/ k1 u9 [+ t/ E" }, C0 gChina, Japan and South Korea have risen from the ashes of war and if these nations have shown the way, Vietnam surely can do the same.
) E3 E4 x2 T! Z# K' a+ dThe question is, will Vietnam have the political will and the co-operation of its people to tackle the hard yards to get there?0 R0 X9 \' ]) |: [$ Z: F: i0 e
I have seen too many poor families whose children prefer to tap unceasingly on their iphones till 1, 2, to 3 pm in the night and then to sleep till 3:00pm the following day and this is repeated day after day especially during their long school holidays instead of putting their nose to the grind stone, studiously learning a trade or doing something to have gainful employment or to earn their daily bread.6 a! O# a/ U) D, h
Poor as some of these families are, yet their kids will have nothing but branded products such as Apple iPhones and Honda motor scooters and Nike shoes and clothes etc. etc.1 w! [& p# L+ s; g; k$ p) E
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我以前就说过,在这个世界上没有什么是不可能的。9 m, K2 c; }- W( B& i6 @& g
然而,对于越南这样的国家,想要把自己发展到中国、日本、韩国这样的水平,它必须能自控、自律,并且像中国一样拼,比如中国以前一贫如洗,在那之前又被欧洲和美国掠夺蹂躏,又被日本侵略破坏,中国就是很拼才发展起来的。
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- O+ e* b% W* i# D8 t在某种程度上,越南遭受了与中国同样的灾难,因为美国及澳大利亚、日本、韩国等盟国肆无忌惮地进行了侵略,他们进行了屠杀和破坏,而它们无法摧毁的东西则投毒,其结果和影响仍可以在许多地方如顺化感觉到。许多未出生的孩子被毁容,侵略者和破坏者至今拒绝承担责任。
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中国、日本和韩国已经从战争的废墟中崛起,这些国家已经指明了道路,越南肯定也能做到这一点。
3 i- _3 ^- v3 \+ U9 M( x7 ]) R问题是,越南是否有政治意愿,是否能和人民合作一起解决困难来达成目标?
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我见过太多的贫困家庭,他们的孩子宁愿玩手机到半夜然后睡到下午3点,这种情况日复一日地重复着,尤其是在他们漫长的学校假期中,他们不愿意刻苦努力,不去学一下贸易或学些能找到工作的知识。
* c6 W8 G  `6 i" b4 f" ^1 P% U" X2 @6 q有些家庭很穷,但是他们的孩子除了品牌产品,如苹果的iphone,本田的摩托车,耐克的鞋子和衣服等等之外,什么都没有。
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Duy Inoue Le9 O- ^6 k4 G4 x4 k! V7 L
Vietnam is not buying any second hand weapon from the west lol ; the coast guars ship are gift ; the drone is kind of give from us mod ; the indian gift us 500 mil to buy they weapon but we didnt used it only used the early. 100 mil to buy few patroal boat for coast guard + most of the govt budget go to education 22-25% + about kid on smartphone most of us go to sleep early during school year (12) normal it 10-11pm that we go to sleep ; but now day it abit more late cause we study up to 10-11pm at teacher house or center ( city kid ) then do homework and go to sleep ,even in holiday period we dont go to sleep at 3 am lol . So either you dont know ant vietnamese student or you only meet vietnamese american and think they are same at vietnamese who live in vietnam lol or you only meet really bad kid ( and those kid arw minority who smoke and go club which every country have those minoritu bad kid lol )$ ]/ j$ J$ \  [( u, j$ |& U

0 L' o8 a) N) l8 t3 ]  p8 Z越南没有从西方买二手武器。海岸警卫船是其他国家送的。无人机是美国国防部给的。印度给我们5亿美元买武器,但我们没有用,而是用了早期的贷款。1亿美元为海岸警卫队买几艘巡逻船,政府大部分预算用于教育22-25%,关于孩子玩手机,我们大多数人在学龄都早睡,正常情况下,我们在10-11点睡觉;但如今睡得稍微晚一些,因为我们学习到10-11点,然后做家庭作业才睡觉。即使在节假日,我们也不会在凌晨3点睡觉。所以要么你不认识什么越南学生,要么你只认识越南裔美国人,并认为他们和住在越南的越南人一样,要么你只认识非常坏的孩子(那些吸烟去酒吧的孩子是少数,每个国家都有少数坏孩子)。% ]' K) s" X) U3 d3 \

2 L0 I' B- f9 VRichard Seeto& r' i- V4 g/ W1 P
My friend, I never said, second hand. Read my post again. It is SECOND RATE.8 Z  K' E* G6 s' s
Do you think America will sell you their F-22 or F-35s?* u. v: y$ J  o; G- o9 `) P2 |
And India will sell you their latest ICBMs., ^" `( f% g2 ~% u
Check the gifts they give you. Mostly hand-me-downs and the $500 mil gift is a ruse to encourage you to buy more and more of the Indian kind of arms that they are willing to sell you.& w; N. B3 z& P: ~4 l- b. X, b
Bet you cannot use that $500 mil to buy arms from any other country but India.% N* V9 |3 \, i$ J9 i% W
Have you read that Indians are now saying that your Vietnamese men are so ugly that all your women folks prefer to marry them?
$ |- y$ X" s* ?; g' zIf there’s one thing you should never forget and it is this:$ h/ ]# |! @3 i
THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH AND EVERY GIFT COMES WITH A STRING ATTACHED EVEN THOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR SO AT THE TIME.8 C' N* |' x8 Q# U6 l2 r
Do whatever at your own peril.
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朋友,我从来没有说过二手武器。再读一遍我的文章,我说的是二流。+ G) T1 ], v6 H2 W3 P8 ]
你认为美国会把F-22或F -35卖给你们吗?
% j; ]* y7 L% N% {- B/ L8 T0 e印度会向你们出售他们最新的洲际弹道导弹吗?
; Q* g3 J- \4 C# V看看他们给你们的礼物。大部分是旧的,5亿美元的礼物是一个诡计,鼓励你们购买更多印度愿意卖给你们的武器。
0 v- g4 V2 J. z- k' i8 p. p我打赌你们不能用这5亿美元从印度以外的其他国家购买武器。  K/ q( y+ \3 e5 L' r- x9 X* n
你读过印度人文章吗,他们说你们的越南男人很丑,你们的女人宁愿嫁给印度人?
4 D4 M4 F# `1 u有一件你永远不应该忘记的事,那就是:天下没有免费的午餐。7 a/ }$ B% Q% Z* N2 T
做任何事都要自负风险。
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- s% o3 O  K& E( ^Ngoc Diep Hoang, former Worked and Lived in Vietnam for More Than 20 Years
  L8 P1 u. A3 U* N/ L! f5 ~6 W( qAnything is possible if we talk about the future.1 }0 r- k6 V  ?' ^4 c! l! _
However, with the current power system under the Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP), especially since the VCP's “doi moi" policy - an open-up policy in the late 1980s, the country has faced many increasing crisis, namely: uncontrollable corruptions from top to bottom officials; uncontrollable national debts; abusive of power against conscientious voices; environmental damages due to reckless and corrupted approvals of overseas industrial projects, losing its sea territory and its natural resources to China, etc. with no sign of any workable strategy or policy to address them.
) Y3 Q5 l8 u6 F* P8 ]# pFor 30 years, the VCP has proved its incompetencies. and it has gradually worsen in the past 15 years. Therefore, Vietnam must change its power system first. And even if Vietnam could change its power system and ridden of the VCP, it would take at least a few decades before it can see any significant growth.
$ }  U* J2 O) {  i1 zLet's hope it will change soon. But only… with very little ground for hope." W; E; _8 c  I) B7 y

+ S7 ~7 ]/ w$ c如果我们谈论未来的话,那么一切皆有可能。
6 F. x; e, Z1 @/ C, e/ F然而,在越南目前的权力体系下,特别是自从1980年代后期越南的“改革开放”政策以来,越南面临着许多日益严重的危机,即:自上而下的官员腐败已经不可控;国家债务已经不可控;滥用权力反对良心的声音;由于不顾后果的发展、由于腐败而批准的海外工业项目而造成严重的环境破坏,被中国夺取领海和自然资源,这些问题没有任何可行的战略或政策来解决。  u! L/ f" V/ }8 x% E
30年来,越南已经证明了它的无能。在过去的15年里,情况逐渐恶化。因此,越南必须首先改变其权利体系。即使越南能够改变其权利体系,并利用VCP,并摆脱越南,它也至少需要几十年才能看到显著的增长。# u: [# x5 t% z, Q* P8 N" M
希望它能很快改变。但只有……几乎没有希望。) K4 Q% n4 [0 J% @3 f
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Ngô Xuan Kỳ, lives in Vietnam (1996-present)9 o4 \# ~* N3 H1 J4 x
Firstly, China is in a different group from South Korea and Japan. The former still has a lot of room to grow while the other two are near their peak with much slower growth.
! P! Y# l0 n, u3 iSecondly, the gap in living standard between Vietnam and the likes of South Korea and Japan is gigantic and cannot be closed in the near future, even with a growth rate of 7% a year.8 W2 l$ S5 e7 V" y8 _* J& z$ c9 k8 S
Vietnam’s estimated PPP GDP per capita in 2050 is $28200, way behind Japan’s ($63100) and South Korea’s ($70000)1 o* ^' T5 A6 s1 Q

' P/ A- I! Q* A. |首先,中国不同于韩国和日本。中国仍有很大的增长空间,而韩国和日本则接近顶峰,增长速度要慢得多。4 \+ c3 m, e6 d1 t4 |4 k
其次,越南与韩国、日本等国的生活水平差距巨大,即使以每年7%的速度增长,也无法在近期消除。7 Z0 W+ @# b# V
预估越南2050年的人均GDP购买力平价为28200美元,远远落后于日本(63100美元)和韩国(70000美元)。
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+ D$ ~) G  b! ?9 W! F* E! jJonathan Buttall) ^+ f9 M: l& Z. J5 R8 y
I’ll learn more in a few weeks, when we visit Vietnam. Developing countries are mostly doing well and it takes time to achieve what Japan and South Korea did, so I agree with your answer.
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当我去越南时,我在几个星期的时间里学到了很多。发展中国家大多做得很好,但要想实现日本和韩国的成就需要时间,所以我同意你的回答。
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  D/ x0 \, `6 _Nguyễn Văn Đồng, Bachelor Real Estate (2017)
$ Q0 I" B- m  J0 P7 ?The question is so broad that I alone can not answer. Please note that my answer bases on economic growth aspect only.
! x2 @$ U0 m8 @) J8 o, t- JIf “near future” means under a decade period, I can assure that it’s mostly impossible.% }0 R, E/ p. |4 z
We dont need economic statistics to find out the gasp. China and Japan are the top largest economic center of the world. Vietnam is such a small piece in the table.
8 }" t# p, e6 S1 uVietnam is developing fast 6.2% gdp growth. But in a decade or two, those countries are still far ahead.0 m/ _7 j1 h3 C2 `. j/ s6 p' r4 B

8 c) S/ Z! a- r+ m* Z这个问题太宽泛了,我一个人无法回答。请注意,我的回答仅基于经济增长方面。
; ~; E% T; u# V9 ^0 F) L2 c4 O1 M如果“不久的将来”指的是不到十年的时间,我敢保证这几乎是不可能的。
: _2 K. n' \, i& U7 g" a我们不需要经济统计数据就能找到答案。中国和日本是世界上最大的经济中心。越南在其中只占很小的一块。越南GDP增长是6.2%。未来10年或20年,这些国家仍遥遥领先。
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9 m" \' }% M) w2 b0 Y( 本文已被整理选入“国外译帖”栏目,欢迎大家阅读:http://www.kanshij.com/community/country/vietnam/17080.html
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