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国外网民辩论:债务使中国经济正在走向崩溃吗?


A Debt Bomb Set to Explode: Is China's Economy Headed for a Meltdown?
译者:unknown     发布时间:2016-06-06     超过 0 位网友阅读

是啊,照湾湾媒体说法,大部分大陆人都吃不起鸡蛋,尽管他们有钱去巴黎购物

原文地址:http://nationalinterest.org


On Friday China announced its economy had expanded at a 6.7 percent rate in the first quarter of 2016. While this is the slowest growth since the depths of the great recession, it conveniently remains within the government’s official target of 6.5-7.0 percent. Unlike all developed countries, there will be no revisions to this figure in the coming months or quarters.

在本周五,中国宣布它在2016年第一个季度的GDP增长为6.7%。这是自大衰退以来的最低涨幅,恰好被控制在政府官员的6.5%到7%的目标之间。与所有发达国家不同的是,在随后的季度或月份中这个数字不会被修订。

债务使中国经济正在走向崩溃

There were two factors that kept Beijing’s growth within its target range: Easy money and the property market. The level of “total social financing,” or borrowing, rose 16 percent in March from a year ago.

北京之所以实现了自己的经济增长目标主要有两个因素:低息贷款和房地产市场。3月份“总的社会融资”或者说借款比去年同期增加了16%。

This was fueled by the bond issuance by local governments as part of its bailout program and investment in ‘fixed asset investment’ which is largely composed of infrastructure and factories.

这主要由地方政府的债券发行驱使的,以对主要由基建和工厂构成的“固定资产投资项目”进行救助和投资。

How long can this trend last? As the well-known economist Herb Stein once said, “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

这股劲头还能持续多久呢?正如一位知名的经济学家赫布斯坦因所说:“如果一件事不能永久持续的话,它终将停止。”




Susumu_Araki • 3 hours ago
Inflation can be a solution for China's debt problem. Then, Renminbi's sharp depreciation will be inevitable.
CCP should be prepared for riots, and all assets should be converted to USD or Euro, and hide in Swiss bank accounts. CCP's high ranking officials should consult Mossack Fonseca.

通货膨胀确实可以解决中国的债务问题。但是这样一来,人民币的贬值就无可避免了。
中共应该准备好应对暴动,所有资产都换成美元或欧元,并且赶紧藏到瑞士的银行账户里。中共的高级官员应该多咨询咨询Mossack Fonseca。



Frank Blangeard Missile • 2 hours ago
Currently China is growing at a rate three times as fast as the United States. If China can't grow out of its debt then what does that say about the U.S. debt?

现在中国经济正以美国的三倍速度增长。如果中国不能摆脱她的债务,那么美国的债务又怎么样呢?



Missile Frank Blangeard • 2 hours ago
China is not growing at the rate they claim.

中国提供的数据不可信。



Frank Blangeard Missile • 43 minutes ago
And the United States is probably not growing at the rate we claim. Both countries manipulate figures.

美国的增长数据可能没有政府所说的那么高。两国都在操纵货币。



Steve Smith Missile • 2 hours ago
So what rate are they growing by? You seem to have inside information.

那他们的增长数据是多少?你貌似有内部消息啊。



Missile Vasya Pypkin • 3 hours ago
What about Russian numbers? They're like Chinese numbers, fiction.

俄罗斯的数据?和中国数据一样都是假的。

P.S: how is the ruble doing today, LMFAO????

p.s:卢布今天怎么样,lamfao?



Frank Blangeard Slim Shady • 3 hours ago
The ruble is down by 0.07% today against the US dollar.

卢布今天对美元下降了0.07% 



Slim Shady Frank Blangeard • 3 hours ago
so that makes it $1=66.274 rubles, da comrade??? how about oil....ahhh skrew all that.....how is your cancer progressing???

所以这让一美元=66.274卢布,是吗,同志???原油怎么样。。。啊,全搞砸了...你的癌症怎么样了?



Frank Blangeard Slim Shady • 2 hours ago
What happens when you throw a boomerang Shady. It comes back to you.

当你投出去一个回旋镖会发生什么 shady。它会飞回你这里。



Inn0centSinner • 8 hours ago
800 million Chinese live on less than $5 dollars a day. The Party's Bank builds vacant homes that will probably crumble before 800 million Chinese can afford to buy them.

有8亿中国人生活在日均5美元的水平线下。 dang的银行正在建设空房子,而这些房子可能在这8亿人能够买得起它之前就垮掉了。



Springfire Inn0centSinner • 7 hours ago
Yes, according to Taiwanese media, most mainlanders can't afford to eat an egg for breakfast ;-) though they can afford to shop in Paris.

是啊,照湾湾媒体说法,大部分大陆人都吃不起鸡蛋,尽管他们有钱去巴黎购物。



pro veritate Springfire • 7 hours ago
Yeah, right, the only people who can afford to shop in Paris are the members of the CCP elites and their families. Just 100 km away from Beijing, many still subsist on less than $100 a month.

啊,对,唯一有钱在巴黎大买特买的是阿共的精英和他们的家族。就在离北京100公里远的地方,还有很多人每个月要靠不到100美元维持生计。



Inn0centSinner pro veritate • 7 hours ago
It's clear that Springfire's math skill wasn't calculated as part of the "average" Chinese math and science test scores to show how Chinese are supposedly smarter than everyone else. To him, a million or two Chinese out of 1.4 billion Chinese being able to shop in Paris is considered to be "most mainlanders".

虽然中国人的数学和科学考试分数会让人觉得中国人应该比其他人聪明,可是楼上上的数学能力真是糟糕。在他看来,14亿人中有一两百万人有能力在巴黎购物就认为他们是“大部分大陆人”。



Springfire pro veritate • 7 hours ago
120 millions Chinese visit various places in the world. I think what you said is bullshit.

1.2亿中国人在世界各处旅游。我觉得你在胡说八道。



Inn0centSinner Springfire • 7 hours ago
120 million/1.4 billion = 8% of the Chinese population. Obviously not "most mainlanders". My first post still stands.

1.2亿/14亿=8%中国人口。显然不是“大部分大陆人”。我上面发表的那个评论依然站得住脚。



Ferdy Marcos Springfire • 5 hours ago
Are you one of those so called 120 million chinese ?

你是所谓的1.2亿中国人之一么?



Inn0centSinner Springfire • 7 hours ago
I've never read any Taiwanese media that said most mainlanders can't afford to eat an egg. 800 million Chinese can afford to shop in Paris? Wow! Did this information come from Chinese media? And here I'm thinking 800 million Chinese being able to jump the Chinese Great Firewall was difficult enough.

我从未见到任何台湾媒体说大部分大陆人吃不起茶叶蛋。8亿中国人有能力去巴黎购物?哇!这信息来自中国媒体吧。我看有8亿中国人能翻过防火墙就已经够艰难了。



Missile Springfire • 2 hours ago
It's less than 1 percent of Chinese that can actually shop in Paris. The other tourists spend their life savings just to visit.

其实只有不到1%的中国人能在巴黎大肆采购。其他游客只是花了他们一辈子的积蓄来走马观花。



thesurvivor • 3 hours ago
Unfortunately most publication on this subject appear to be politically motivated rather than based on scientific reasoning. William T. Wilson, the author of this article, is working for the Heritage Foundation that carries the neocon political agenda.

不幸的是,就这个话题而言,大部分媒体都是政治驱动而非基于科学推理。本文作者威廉.T.威尔逊就是为代表极端保守势力的传统基金会工作的。



tteng • 8 hours ago
The above data is a year old, but sufficient for a perspective compare.
In addition, Japan's total debt is about 450% of its GDP.
While China's number is up there along with the developed world, but it looks par course among the big economies.

上面链接里的数据已经是一年前的了,但也足以从一个视角进行比较。
此外,日本的总负债达到了其GDP的450%。

中国的负债率也随着发达世界的数据增长而增长,不过在经济实体的大家伙里,这数据看起来也是意料之中的。


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