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QA问答:如何在20年内把一个贫穷的国家变成富裕的国家?


译者:unknown     发布时间:2020-09-15     超过 0 位网友阅读

很难说中国的未来会是什么样子,但就在我有生之年,中国的转变是非同寻常的




How would you turn a poor country into a rich country in 20 years?

如何在20年内把一个贫穷的国家变成富裕的国家?

如何在20年内把一个贫穷的国家变成富裕的国家?





Stephen Charles
I think this can be a rabbit hole, take the cases of Japan and Afghanistan. In Japan the United States dropped not 1 but 2 nuclear bombs on it and fire bombed significant portions of the rest of the country. A generation or two later Japan was the most advanced economy in the world.
Meanwhile, the US spent perhaps 2–3 trillion dollars trying to do “nation building” in Afghanistan to no avail. Perhaps you could say American and other foreign interventions have hurt Afghanistan and you’d probably be correct but it illustrates a point.
I think it really comes down to the industriousness and intelligence of the nation’s people. An outside force can’t really do much to make a country rich or poor. Perhaps importing extremely intelligent leaders to the country to reform it’s institution could help but many countries would regard this as occupation and would come to resent and resist it.

我认为这可能是一个无底洞,以日本和阿富汗为例。在日本,美国向日本投下的2枚核弹,轰炸了该国大部分地区。一两代人之后,日本成为世界上最发达的经济体。
与此同时,美国花了大约2-3万亿美元试图在阿富汗进行“国家建设”,但无济于事。也许你可以说美国和其他外国的干预已经伤害了阿富汗,你可能是对的,但这说明了一点。
我认为这要归功于这个国家人民的勤奋和智慧。外部力量并不能真正使一个国家变富或变穷。也许引进非常聪明的领导人到这个国家来改革它的体制可能会有所帮助,但许多国家会把这种做法视为占领,并且会开始憎恨和抵制它。



Vahe Shelunts, Intern at US Embassy Yerevan (2017-present)
The prosperity of a country depends on quite many factors, but particularly human and physical capital, productivity, natural resources and technological innovation. I would invest heavily in education and research & development to increase the quality of human capital. Another important characteristic that developed states have is relatively low level of corruption and very advanced institutional system. So, I would also make sure to invest considerably to eradicate corruption from public institutions.

一个国家的繁荣取决于许多因素,特别是人力资本、物质资本、生产力、自然资源和技术创新。我会在教育和研发方面投入大量资金,以提高人力资本的质量。发达国家的另一个重要特点是腐败程度相对较低,体制非常先进。因此,我也会确保投入大量资金,从公共机构中根除腐败。



Selim Inges, Data Analyst
Invest in infrastructure and education. Send the brightest abroad to study at foreign universities, paid for by the govt.
Pillage the natural resources to cover the cost of infrastructure. Hopefully this pays off and you can get some manufacturing/service/tourism industries going before you run out of resources or pollute too much

投资基础设施和教育。把最聪明的人送到国外大学学习,政府支付费用。
掠夺自然资源以支付基础设施的成本。希望这会有所回报,你可以让一些制造业、服务业、旅游业在资源枯竭或污染严重之前走上正轨



Pete Von Vuren
Headhunt the most brilliant brains from around the globe, appoint them as policymakers, ignore the self interest protest from the elected politicians, and I think things will turn out pretty well.

猎取全球最聪明的人才,任命他们为政策制定者,无视选举产生的政客们的私利抗议,我认为事情会发展得很好。



Frank Howell, B.S. Business Administration & Financial Management, University of Southern California
Easy. I would do the same thing the “Asian Tiger” economies and post-WWII Japan did, except instead of going 10% of the way, I would go 100% of the way. [url]www.landreform.org[/url]

容易的。我会做“亚洲四小龙”和二战后的日本一样的事情,只是我会走100%的路,而不是走10%的路。



Answered December 3, 2019
When I was born, in 1981, China''s GDP per capita was less than that of Chad. I thought that sounded like nonsense the first time I heard it, but it''s true. On a per capita basis, China was one of the poorest countries on earth.
To be fair, that''s due to the extremely large population. China had a decently functioning economy even then, but huge swaths of the country were very poor rural areas with little development to speak of.
In less than forty years, the Chinese economy exploded into a global manufacturing powerhouse. Over half a billion people have risen out of poverty in a few decades, which is feat never even approached before in history.
It''s hard to say what China''s future holds, but the transformation, just in my lifetime, has been extraordinary.

在1981年我出生的时候,中国的人均国内生产总值还不乍得。我第一次听说时以为这像是在胡说八道,但这是真的。按人均计算,中国是世界上最贫穷的国家之一。
公平地说,这是由于人口非常多。即使在那个时候,中国的经济仍然运转良好,但是中国的广大地区是非常贫穷的农村地区,那里几乎没有发展可言。
在不到40年的时间里,中国经济迅速发展成为全球制造业强国。在几十年里,超过5亿人摆脱了贫困,这是历史上从未有过的壮举。
很难说中国的未来会是什么样子,但就在我有生之年,中国的转变是非同寻常的。



Alok Tripathi, former Speaker at All India Radio (2001-2013)
1 China
It is the most important economic miracle of this century. China’s per capita income was same as India in 1970s.
Moreover China could completely stabilized its population, now hardly any difference between India and China as for as population is concern.
China’s foreign exchange reserves is more than any countries GDP ( except the USA).
Unprecedented growth of the Chinese economics .
2 Israel
War affected country through out since its inception. Not blessed with the natural resources, even then accomplished the status of a developed country. People of the Israel ( who are isolated from the many countries ) are the greatest example of endurance.
3 Singapore
The most developed country in Asia in all the parameters such as per capita income , one of the highest rank in the HDI, qualitative & pragmatic education, unity in diversities, well planned & well governed society, peaceful & progressive, safest & cleanest country. Role model for many countries in the world.
4 South Korea
South Korea is another country which came up in no time. Today it is the power center of consumer durable & automobiles. It is another country which is always remain alx from its neighbor North Korea which is having atomic weapons. In spite that today South Korea is one of the most respected & admired country,

1、中国
这是本世纪最重要的经济奇迹。20世纪70年代,中国的人均收入与印度持平。
此外,中国可以完全稳定其人口,就人口问题而言,印度和中国现在几乎没有任何区别。
中国的外汇储备超过任何国家的GDP(除了美国)。
中国经济空前发展。
2、以色列
这个国家从一开始就受到战争的影响。没有得天独厚的自然资源,即便如此也成就了发达国家的地位。以色列人民(与许多国家隔绝)是忍耐力的最好例子。
3、新加坡
在人均收入、人类发展指数中排名最高的国家之一、质量和务实的教育、多样性的统一、计划周密和治理良好的社会、和平进步、最安全和最干净的国家、亚洲最发达的国家、世界上许多国家的榜样。
4、韩国
韩国是另一个很快崛起的国家。今天,它是耐用消费品和汽车的动力中心。尽管今天韩国是最受尊敬和推崇的国家之一,但它是另一个一直对邻国保持警惕的国家,它的邻国朝鲜拥有核武器。



John Doyle, former Retired Architect/ Builder
Only city states, Dubai, Monaco, Singapore, Hong Kong, Luxembourg can hope to achieve that status and it’s really not an intrinsic wealth. The economy of such states is geared to attract wealthy persons with exemptions for tax from neighbouring realms that have taxes that want to avoid. They will all be a tax haven to some degree, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, have more collared than position as a hinge between east and west to become transport hubs, etc It is all very fragile but still looking good today, But for how long?

只有国家或地区,迪拜、摩纳哥、新加坡、香港、卢森堡才能实现这一地位,这并不是一种内在财富。这些国家的经济状况是为了吸引有免税需求的富人,这些人想避免临近国家的税收。在某种程度上它们都是避税天堂。作为东西方之间的枢纽,迪拜和阿布扎比更像是一个交通枢纽。这一切都很脆弱,即使如今看起来还不错,但还能持续多久呢?



William Scott Gibson, former Professional Chef (2002-2017)
POLAND! Hungry went the other way (NOT ENOUGH YOUNG PEOPLE!)
I am an ultra-conservative! One in 6 children in AMERICA GO TO BED HUNGRY! WE HAVE SPENT 20 TRILLION ON HOMELESS BUT THE BUREAUCRATS GOT IT! THAT IS 40 MILLION PER HOMELESS PERSON! IT IS A RACKETT!
But now we must impose a plunder tax on the .01% that s getting so rich that they will destroy not only the poor! But the middle classes! If they get the 10% tax they will virtually be paid to be the richest people on the planet!A C.E.O.makes 680 TIMES WHAT THE AVERAGE WORKER MAKES!
They can be on many boards ! so they can make thousands of times what average workers make !Why not just hire 680 people to do the C.E.O. job? Wouldn’t 680 heads be better than one overpaid head?
The TAX INCOME: is paid 70% by the workers, and the other 30% is paid by the small businesses! While the rich corporation and “non” profits pay nothing as they get corporate welfare! The rich have never paid even for murder! No execution of a rich person in our history! The TAX should never be imposed on the poor or MIDDLE CLASSES! It should not even be imposed on small business! The plunders TAX SHOULD START AT 2 million dollars at 40% then graduate up to the richest at 90% .the Rothschild is said to have 1500 TRILLION DOLLARS in secret vaults in the form of gold! THIS IS INCOME TAX EVASION on a grand scale!7 billion people on planet earth need to get together and demand that governments(ALL OF THEM)stop letting the rich PLUNDER!
And the entire world needs to cave in on the ultra wealthy!OTHERWISE, THE RICH WILL HAVE A TWO CLASS SOCIETY THE SUPER RICH (WHO ANSWER TO NO ONE!)AND THE SUPER POOR! PUTIN AND THE OTHER DICTATORS ARE ALL CAPITALIST THEY ARE JUST FASCIST CAPITALIST… the stock market needs to be properly taxed! As well as derivatives (A huge 14.4 QUADRILLION DOLLAR MARKET) So if we impose a poor tax on derivatives of 1% then We can have $14 TRILLION DOLLARS to house, employ train the homeless, orphans, unemployed widows underemployed and those who can’t work!
This is not a revolution it is polite society imposing its values on plunder, A VERY CAPITALIST CONCEPT …plunder must be punished!

波兰!饥饿走了另一条路(年轻人还不够!)
我是个极端保守的人!美国六分之一的孩子饿着肚子睡觉!我们为无家可归的人花了20万亿美元,但是这都装进官僚们的口袋!每个无家可归的人能分到4000万!这是诈骗!
但是现在我们必须对那些已经变得如此富有的0.01%的人征收掠夺税,以致于他们不会摧毁穷人!但是中产阶级!如果他们得到了10%的税,他们实际上将成为世界上最富有的人!一个首席执行官的收入是普通工人的680倍!
他们可以在董事会担任多职!这样他们就可以赚到普通工人数千倍的收入!为什么不雇佣680人来做首席执行官呢?680个大脑不比一个超额支付的大脑好吗?
税收收入:70%由工人缴纳,其余30%由小企业缴纳!而富有的公司和“非”盈利组织在获得公司福利的同时却不用缴纳一分钱!有钱人甚至连谋杀都不用付钱!我们的历史上没有处决富人!这个税不应该对穷人或中产阶级征收!它甚至不应该强加给小企业!掠夺税应该从200万美元的40%起征,然后以90%的税率上升到最富有的人。据说罗斯柴尔德家族有1500万亿美元的秘密金库!这是大规模的偷税行为!地球上70亿人需要团结起来,要求政府(所有人)停止让富人掠夺!
全世界都需要向超级富豪屈服!普京和其他du裁者都是资本家,他们只是法西斯资本家……股市需要适当征税!还有衍生品(一个1.44万万亿美元的巨大市场),所以如果我们对衍生品征收1%的低税率,那么我们就可以有1.4万亿美元来安置、雇佣、培训无家可归的人、孤儿、失业的寡妇、未充分就业的人和那些不能工作的人!
这不是一场ge命,而是上流社会将其价值观强加于掠夺,一种非常资本主义的观念……掠夺必须受到惩罚!



Joshua Macapili
Definitely South Korea, it experienced double-digit growth during the "Miracle on the Han River". Before this period, it suffered from over population (it has the twenty-third largest population in a very small landmass, and today its population density exceeds 1000 people per square mile). It also had no industrial base whatsoever, all the industry in Korea were located in North Korea after the partition. It lacked any natural resources.
It then pursued export-oriented industrialisation, a method of growth followed by Japan, China, the other Asian Tiger economies and three of the Asian Tiger cub economies (except the Philippines). In 1960, it had an inflation-adjusted (people here didn''t account inflation, nominally it was around $100) per capita GDP of around $1,100 2000 Int''l $. Now it has a per capita GDP of $24,000 2000 Int''l $ and a nominal one of around $27,000. That''s like, a 270-fold increase nominally and a more than 20-fold increase when adjusted for inflation. Most of the largest international conglomerates (such as Hyundai, Samsung, Kia) are from Korea.
Not only it became rich (I like to think South Korea as more successful than the other tiger economies because it started at a much lower base and has a larger population, meaning that of course it would have a lower GDP per capita), it gained large influence. It has one of the most largest militaries, much larger than the weak Japan and on-par with China, a country much, much larger than it. It also has a high military technology. If China were reduced to South Korea''s population size, it''s obvious South Korea will win. It also developed a pop culture (consisting of pop music and drama) that replaced Japanese pop culture as the dominant one in Asia.
By 2050, some people project that nominal GDP per capita would surpass $150,000 due to large increases in consumer spending and productivity, making it the fourth richest country (along with the rest of the Asian tigers) in a per capita basis. Despite it being in the middle of three giants, China (1.3+ billion), Russia (140 million), Japan (126 million) it is a major regional power and an emerging power. Korean reunification will only bolster this process, with South Korea gaining more labor (its population will increase to 80 million, near the economic giant Germany''s size) and the great mineral wealth of the North.

当然是韩国,它在“汉江奇迹”期间经历了两位数的增长。在此之前,它遭受了人口过多的困扰((它在一块很小的陆地上拥有第二十三大人口数量,今天它的人口密度超过每平方英里1000人)。它也没有任何工业基础,朝鲜半岛的工业在分裂后都集中在朝鲜。它缺乏任何自然资源。
随后,它推行出口导向型工业化,日本、中国、其他亚洲四小龙经济体和亚洲四小虎的另外三个(菲律宾除外)紧随其后采用这种发展方式。1960年,经通货膨胀调整后(这里的人没有考虑通货膨胀,名义上是100美元左右),人均国内生产总值按2000年的国际美元计算约为1100美元。现在它的人均国内生产总值按2000年的国际美元计算为24000美元,名义上约为27000美元。这就好比名义上增长了270倍,而根据通货膨胀调整后则增长了20倍以上。大多数最大的国际企业集团(如现代、三星、起亚)都来自韩国。
它不仅变得富有(我认为韩国比其他高速经济体更成功,因为它的起点低得多,人口也更多,这意味着它的人均GDP当然会更低),而且还获得了巨大的影响力。它拥有最大的军事力量之一,比弱小的日本大得多,与比它大得多的中国不相上下。它还拥有很高超的军事技术。如果中国人口减少到韩国的人口规模,显然韩国会赢。它还发展了一种流行文化(包括流行音乐和电视剧),取代日本流行文化成为亚洲的主导文化。
一些人预计,到2050年,由于消费支出和生产率的大幅增长,它名义上的人均国内生产总值将超过15万美元,使其成为人均排名第四富有的国家(与亚洲四小龙的其他几个国家一起)。尽管它处于中国(13亿以上人口)、俄罗斯(1.4亿人口)、日本(1.26亿人口)三大巨头的中间,但它仍是一个主要的地区性大国和一个新兴大国。



Al Carroll, Professor, Historian, Author, Fulbright Scholar
The obvious ones to look at are the Persian Gulf states and Brunei, who became wealthy thanks to having one badly needed and highly priced resource, oil. Some parts of their stories are fascinating for their excesses, such as Brunei''s Sultan with his gold plated cars, dozens of palaces, and stories of flying in Hollywood actresses for very expensive prostitution. For these nations, their wealth was purely a matter of luck, and there''s no sign such wealth will continue once the resource is gone.
Another answer mentioned Singapore. This was a port once notorious for poverty, dirtiness, and dangerousness in American and British fiction, film, and songs of 50-60 years ago. Today it''s highly developed and almost antiseptically clean and safe. But it is a paradox. It''s highly capitalistic and commercially successful. But the state produces much of that wealth. It is the sole landlord and the main provider of housing and healthcare. Yet unxs are crippled, and it''s a tax haven for wealthy elites. It''s also one of the most unequal societies, despite its great wealth.
The final example is one surprisingly no one has mentioned. Before the United States was born, its American Indian tribes had no poverty. They were radically equal societies where those unable to care for themselves were provided for. The US was resource rich but almost all its people were very poor until WWII. The war destroyed or weakened all major global competitors, since they''d all been invaded or heavily bombed. A strong unx movement redistributed that wealth to the general public, and the GI Bill brought education that before mostly the wealthy had. As unxs were crippled and the competitors recovered from wars, political elites began redistributing the wealth...this time from the middle and poorer classes to the wealthy. US society is the most unequal today it''s been since the 1920s, almost a century ago, and that inequality is getting worse faster.

最明显的是波斯湾国家和文莱,这些国家因为拥有一种急需且价格昂贵的石油资源而变得富有。他们的故事中的某些部分因为他们的夸张行为而引人入胜,例如文莱的苏丹开着镀金汽车,拥有数十座宫殿,以及还有好莱坞女演员为了金钱飞来飞去卖淫的故事。对于这些国家来说,他们的财富纯粹是运气问题,一旦资源枯竭,这种财富将不复存在。
另一个则是新加坡。在50到60年前的美国和英国小说,电影和歌曲中,这曾是一个因贫穷,肮脏和危险而臭名昭著的港口。如今,它已经高度发达,并且是清洁且安全的。但这是一个悖论。这是高度资本主义和商业化的成功。但是大部分财富是由国家创造的。国家是唯一的房东,也是住房和医疗保健的主要提供者。然而,工会却没有发挥作用,对于富裕的精英人士来说,这是避税天堂。尽管拥有巨大的财富,它也是最不平等的社会之一。
最后一个例子令人惊讶的是没有人提到。在美国诞生之前,其美洲印第安部落不是贫穷的。他们是绝对平等的社会,那些没有办法自理的人也可以得到照顾。美国拥有丰富的资源,但是第二次世界大战之前,几乎所有的美国人都非常贫穷。这场战争摧毁或削弱了全球主要的竞争对手,因为它们都遭到了入侵或遭到严重轰炸。强大的工会运动将这些财富重新分配给了广大公众,《退伍军人权利法案》带来了之前大多数富人才有的教育。随着工会的瘫痪以及竞争对手从战争中恢复过来,政治精英开始重新分配财富……这次是从中产阶级和穷人阶级转移到了富人手中。自20世纪20年代以来,美国社会是大概一个世纪以来是最不平等的社会,而且不平等现象的恶化速度越来越快。

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