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美国网民:为什么中国经济注定要面临一场大危机?


译者:unknown     发布时间:2018-10-11     超过 0 位网友阅读

那才是我所害怕的,如果中国真的发生一场经济危机,每个人都携带自己的资金逃往美国

原文地址:https://www.reddit.com


User explains how China's economy is set up for a crash bigger than the US housing bubble of 2008 

为什么中国经济注定要面临一场比美国2008年房地产泡沫还大的危机呢?

为什么中国经济注定要面临一场大危机?





pipster818
So, first they steal our manufacturing jobs, then they steal our idea of having a housing bubble and a giant financial crisis. We gotta get tough on China.

所以,他们首先偷了我们的制造业岗位,然后又偷走了我们有房地产泡沫和金融危机的想法。我们必须对中国强硬。



iaalaughlin
For the US, a mixed impact, but probably a net negative considering the impact if Chinese investors yank a significant portion of their US investments to pay their debts in China.

中国经济危机对美国的影响是多重的,但如果中国投资者将他们在美国的很大一部分投资撤回中国还债的话,很可能就是一个纯消极的影响了。



TL10
I'm fearing this could have a sour effect on our economy up here in Canada.

我担心这会对我们加拿大的经济产生不利影响。

There is lots of Chinese investment in real estate here, particularly in Vancouver and Toronto. The rampant speculation has already grossly inflated the values of properties that aren't even worth as much as a dime over $300k.

加拿大这边的房地产有大量来自中国的投资,特别是在温哥华和多伦多。疯狂的投机活动已经严重抬高了房产的价格,而之前的价格甚至都要不了30万美元。

If what OP says is true, surely Chinese investors will have to liquidate some (if not, all) of their assets here, and I'm sure that will go down just swell in the regions of the country where there's more prominent foreign investment.

如果这是真的,那么中国投资者肯定要将在这里的部分(如果不是的话,那就是全部)资产变现,我相信这种问题在加拿大那些外国投资更多的地区将更加凸显。

Fasten your seatbelts chaps, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

系好你的安全带啊,伙计们,接下来的路将不会很平坦。



aluvus 
FWIW, "It's the economy, stupid" should be attributed to James Carville, a strategist for Bill Clinton in his successful run against George H.W. Bush, not to Bush.

不管怎样,“经济才是关键,蠢蛋!”这句话应该归功于詹姆斯·卡维尔,他是比尔·克林顿的策略师,帮助克林顿在竞选中成功打败了老布什。 
注释:
George H.W. Bush乔治·赫伯特·沃克·布什,即老布什。美国第51届第41任总统。小布什的父亲。
Bill Clinton比尔·克林顿,美国第52届、第53届第42任总统。



Stillwatch
That really bothered me too. He's super in to economics / politics but got that wrong? 

这也让我很困惑。他很擅长经济学和政治学,但是他说的错了吗?



dexmonic
The information given, while plausibly true, is only a small slice of the overall Chinese economy. Also, the government types are completely different, meaning the outcome probably won't be the same as the Chinese government has a lot more latitude to get involved to either prevent or mitigate the problems.

给出的信息,似乎是真实的,但那对于中国的整体经济来说只是一个小部分。而且政府的类型是完全不同的,这意味着结果可能不一样,因为中国政府有更多的参与空间,可以防止或者缓解经济危机问题。



IAmOnYourSide 
Except.... it's missing the part where the mortgages were subprime. The savings rate in China is higher than the US which means they have more discretionary income. AFAIK there is no subprime mortgage lending in China and none of it is being bundled together and being sold as structured credit investments.

没有提到美国的是次级抵押贷款。在中国,储蓄率高于美国,这意味着他们有更多的可支配收入。据我所知,在中国是没有次级抵押贷款的,而且次级抵押贷款没有被捆绑在一起,也没有作为结构性信贷投资出售。

注释:美国次贷危机的“次”是指为一些贷款机构向信用程度较差和收入不高的借款人发放了按揭贷款,并在此按揭贷款上发行了债券。信用评级机构将这种本来质量较差的债券评高,同时在债券上设计发售更大的综合衍生品,并且初级衍生品由优质劣质债券相互组成,程度复杂,形成了巨大的额度链。



HiThereImJerr 
I agree, the heavy investments into subprime mortgages then CDOs then synthetic CDOs was the root of how much damage the bubble caused in the US. Its the equivalent of digging your grave deeper and deeper and this technical difference is why China will never have this impending super crisis.

我同意,将很大的投资放在次级抵押贷款,然后是在债务抵押债券,再然后是在合成式债务抵押债券上,这是经济泡沫在美国造成那么多损失的根本原因。这相当于不断地在自掘坟墓。而中国将永远不会面临这种超级危机,因为技术层面上的不同。

注释:
CDOs (Collateralized Debt Obligations)债务抵押债券

synthetic CDOs 合成式债务抵押债券



AkitaBijin 
I'm a bit out of my element here, but as I understand it, the aspect that makes the situation in China potentially even worse has little to do directly with the housing market. It has everything to do with commercial lending. Since the bookkeeping is so opaque and losses are routinely hidden by local beaurocracy, no one is really certain what assets and liabilities most companies - and often, local governments, actually have.

我觉得我还不熟悉这个领域,但我的理解是,中国的情况可能甚至还更糟,其中的原因与房地产市场没有太多的直接联系。它与商业贷款息息相关。由于记账很不透明,损失通常被当地的官僚隐藏起来,所以没有人真的能确定大部分企业和地方政府的资产和负债情况。

The housing market itself is not the problem, it's the first domino. The fear is that a hiccup un the housing market will cause an avalanche in the commercial side of things - where the serious money lies.

房地产市场本身并不是问题,它只是第一个多米诺骨牌。令人担心的是,房地产市场的一个小问题会导致商业领域的雪崩,而大钱都在商业领域。



castizo
So what about all the houses they bought in places like Vancouver and Seattle that sit empty?

所以,他们在温哥华和西雅图等地购买的所有房子都是空置的,这是为何呢?



Bman3223 
They are used by wealthy Chinese to get a large amount of capital out of the country. If China decides to confiscates all their money, they can flee and still have assets. Chinese citizens can only own a few classes of assets abroad. It's also why bitcoin is big in China; the government has a hard time of tracking it.

这些房子是富有的中国人用来把大量的资本从中国转移出来的。如果中国决定没收他们所有的钱,那他们可以逃跑,他们也还有财产。中国公民在国外只能拥有几类资产。这也是比特币在中国很流行的原因,政府追查起来很难。



JetpackWalleye
That would be my fear if china actually has a real economic crisis.... everyone fleeing with their funds to the US and driving coastal city housing markets even farther into insanely overheated territory.

那才是我所害怕的,如果中国真的发生一场经济危机,每个人都携带自己的资金逃往美国,将使得美国沿海城市的房地产市场更加疯狂过热。



zethien 
I'm not entirely sure this guy is totally correct. China has made enormous gains in lifting what was one of the largest abject poverty populations into a middle class in just a few decades, but has still roughly half of the growing 1 billion+ population to go. Attempting to lift 500 million people into the middle class, which would then be able to look for homes, would lead to massive inflation if there were a housing shortage. The housing surplus is being built ahead of time (since there are time delays to building houses) to mitigate this.

我不能肯定这个家伙是完全正确的。在短短的几十年间,中国让很大一部分赤贫人口发展成中产阶级,国家取得了巨大的收益,但十多亿人口中仍有大约一半的人需要脱贫。要使5亿人发展成之后有能力购买住房的中产阶级,那么如果住房短缺的话,就会导致大规模的通货膨胀。所以中国正在提前建造过剩的房屋来缓解这个问题(因为房屋建设需要时间)。



FreudJesusGod
Yah, China has the ability (and willingness) to directly intervene in many of the biggest companies in China.

是的,中国有能力(和意愿)直接干预在中国的那些大公司。


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