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译者:unknown     发布时间:2019-06-14     超过 0 位网友阅读



As was widely expected, China's decision to slap 25% tariffs on US soybeans has caused orders from Chinese importers to slow to a trickle as Chinese companies are slowly finding other markets to source the crops, which are typically ground into protein meal to feed China's massive population. And in addition to Brazil, which has seen exports to China rise as it surpasses the US as the world's largest producer of soybeans, Russia's nascent soybean industry is undergoing a boomlet at the expense of American producers. 



The latest federal data, through mid-October, shows American soybean sales to China have declined by 94 percent from last year’s harvest. Meanwhile, Russian exports are booming, with Russian farmers expected to harvest a record 3.9 million tons in the current season that ends in 2019.


And as we pointed out earlier this week, this has left North Dakotan soybean farmers in a difficult spot, as orders from their farms have slowed to a trickle.


And though Soybean farmers will receive the lion's share of $4.7 billion in payments authorized by the Department of Agriculture under its Market Facilitation Program, part of Trump's bailout for farmers, this aid is only temporary, and won't guarantee that new markets for American soybeans can be cultivated (though another $200 million has been earmarked explicitly for that purpose).


Kevin Karel, the general manager of the Arthur Companies, which operates six grain elevators in eastern North Dakota, has started to pile one million bushels of soybeans on a clear patch of ground behind some of his grain silos. The big mound of yellowish-white beans, already one of the taller hills in this flat part of the world, will then be covered with tarps.


The tariffs have particularly hit exports from North Dakota, where the expansion of oilseed acreage was a direct result of the growth of Chinese demand. The state plants the fourth-highest number of soybeans in the U.S. and about 70 percent go to Asia, largely because of its geographic accessibility to western ports.One cooperative in North Dakota expects to store more than 2 million bushels of soybeans this year.


Illinois, the largest US soybean producer, may have the biggest storage shortfall, needing as much as 100 million bushels for storing crops。


Yet while the harm being done to farmers, a key constituent of Trump's base, could undermine his prospects of winning a second term in 2020, we wouldn't be surprised to hear some of his Russia-obsessed critics cite this as just one more example of how President Trump is putting Russia's interests above the US's.


All Russia agriculture produce are non GMO.


Cheap Chinese Crap
politics trumps economics in the modern world. China will soon be back in the business of buying US soybeans due to the political necessities of the situation.


Canadian Gal
" his means that US exports of soybeans will not just resume but probably increase, since it is a US product that is readily available to help reduce that disparity once a new agreement is reached. The Chinese ALREADY offered to buy more agricultural products in an attempt to stave off tariffs in the first place, so you know this is going to be part of the final deal. "


Don't kid yourself. That offer to buy more ag products was ages ago and Trump blew China off when they offered. You're going to need to come up with something else they need now if you want them to buy more from the US. Trump needs to get his **** together and end this game before the US loses even more markets for good.


A better assessment would be Russia employed a strategy based on that saying, when life gives you lemons, make lemonade.Russia's overall grain production growth since the West / US led sanctions were imposed is really quite impressive.


Everything US elites do just strengthens the Russia/China alliance.The US is checkmating itself.


If there are things we don't have and can't produce, we need to learn to live without them. It's not impossible by any means. mean that we can't support quite so large a population. over generations -- reduce that population. 


Yes, part of the reason the Chinese market is so important is that the Europeans and many South Americans won't buy that ****.


Sucks we are losing a soy market. Sounds like farmers are getting aid. US Treasury is getting lots of new funds via tariffs on Chinese goods. US was bankrolling $2B per month ++ on Iraq War. Maybe the trade war will work out in the coming year with China.


I mean, if they had all these beans to sell, we should assume they had customers for this crop or they wouldn't have planted them.My point is that I would assume the demand for soy internationally is relatively fixed, so why are farmers stuck with this no bid bean?


Yen Cross
They're subsidized through corn production. That's just the feed crop. Trump just okayed new subsidies on Ethanol production.


Canadian Gal
From what I've read, Chinese demand fell after they discovered they were overfeeding their pigs so have now reduced soy percentage in their feed down to the same standard the US uses. Other Asian countries have followed suit as I understand it, further reducing world demand. This happened after the tariffs were put in place.


Brazil has already set up to DOUBLE US Soy production this year which in Brazil will be in the next 9 months. Then Russia wants in on soy. Russia is now the world's largest producer of Wheat, So is a great alternating crop to supply nitrogen to the soil so they will be giants in a few years.


The US cut their own throats. Trump was STUPID. Even though Trump claims to be an expert in all things, he didn't grasp that the growing season above and below the equator are opposite. So when he started Toying with the Chinese, they became concerned that their supply china of soy would be jeopardized. So they quickly outsourced the entire crop and they were able to do it with Brazil that was harvesting while the US was planting. Nice work Trump you moron.


A record harvest would imply oversupply and reduced prices, regardless of China. Nothing new for farmers. Further most farmers rotate crops do as to not depleat the land. Beans are rotated in because they have nitrogen fixation in their roots, that after harvest act as fertilizer enhancing the soil for corn, sorgum or what have you. Most farmers can easily substitute crops next season to help with market fluxuations but farmers are too used to gluts and market disruptions killing profits.


You have not yet learned that markets can stay illiquid longer than you can stay solvent.If there is no truce, there is either a big rescue package in the works or a lot of **** being bought on the cheap when the dust settles.


Tyler D
Or use them as fertilizer for the soil and let it rot into the ground, although I'm not sure the ramifications of that would be better. I do know the soil is turning to crap from all these mass industrial farming techniques and creating another potential disaster.


We need the strategic stockpile system back, we need the government bins like it was before. We have no backup in this country in case of war, natural disaster, and financial meltdown.We can starve because of Clinton I, we need a back up. Alaska created a backup system with warehouses and all that. But we need a national system for minerals and grain. It was called the strategic mineral reserve.


Just like the Chinese steel, there is too much over-capacity in the agriculture business. Dumping milk because there is too much. Dairy business is a difficult. So the government has price subsidies on milk. Same problem in Europe. 


The russian agricultural sector for one has grown like +50% every year for many years already. They were importing all their food before the trade blockades... and were forced to start reclaiming their old world leadership in beef and cheeses etc.. 


And where are the former customers for Russian, Argentinian and Brazilian beans buying now?


Zero Point
I'm sure this has no effect on Chinese pork prices.


In Europe there was soy flour in bread and cold meat preparations.They are stupid if they think they can wait this out. Russia is already the biggest wheat exporter and is stepping in for soy. For China it is much better to buy from neighbour Russia than from far away US who pursue an unpredictable agenda. But China is learning to ensure they are not dependent on the US. Dealing with the neighbours is less capricious.


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