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Russia may find ally inChina -- albeit a passive one for now
译者:unknown     发布时间:2014-07-18     超过 0 位网友阅读



Beijing (CNN) -- Vladimir Putin is seeking China's support inRussia's standoff with Western powers over Ukraine. In a rare phoneconversation, Putin briefed his counterpart in Beijing, President Xi Jinping,on "Russia's position on the issue and measures Russia had taken to tacklethe crisis," the state-controlled Xinhua news agency reported Wednesday.


President Xi said the situation in Ukraine is"highly complicated and sensitive," which "seems to beaccidental, (but) has the elements of the inevitable."


He added that China believes Russia can"push for the political settlement of the issue so as to safeguardregional and world peace and stability" and he "supports proposalsand mediation efforts of the international community that are conducive to thereduction of tension."


The Chinese leader's comments followed similarlyguarded statements by Chinese diplomats earlier this week, which neithercriticized nor supported Moscow's actions over Ukraine.


Unsurprisingly, Russia has attempted to depictChina's position as more supportive than it actually is.


In describing an earlier phone call between theforeign ministers of China and Russia, the foreign ministry in Moscow saidMonday that there was "a broad convergence of views between Russia andChina in connection to the situation in Ukraine and around it."

In fact, China's foreign ministry spokesmanprovided more nuanced statements. "It is China's longstanding position notto interfere in others' internal affairs," Qin Gang said in a regularpress briefing over the weekend. "We respect theindependence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine."


Qin did not criticizeRussia for sending troops into Ukrainian territory but he repeated China's callfor dialogue to resolve the standoff. Referring to the demonstrations inUkraine's capital last month that culminated in the removal of pro-RussianPresident Viktor Yanukovych, he said: "We condemn the recent extreme andviolent acts there and have been urging the relevant parties in Ukraine toresolve their internal disputes peacefully."


Asked if China recognized the new Ukrainiangovernment, he replied: "This requires a judgment to be made based on thelaws of Ukraine."


Spokesman Qin's equivocation shows the delicatebalance China is trying to strike to maintain good relations with Russiawithout alienating itself completely from the United States and Europe.


Russian bulwark


To be sure, there is no love lost between Chinaand Russia. At the height of the Cold War in the 1960s, China and the formerSoviet union       -- the two largest Communist states in the world -- were bitterideological enemies. At one point, Moscow reportedly deployed an estimated500,000 troops along its border with China. As for Washington's strategicpartnership with China, it had been rooted largely in a shared enmity toward acommon enemy -- the Soviet union      . Relations only started to thaw towards theend of the 1980s when Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev visited Beijing.


But the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe,which led to the collapse of the Soviet empire itself, turned a new page inSino-Russia relations with trade quickly replacing rhetoric. For more than twodecades, Moscow has been Beijing's major supplier of military equipment, someof which has been instrumental in the modernization of the People's LiberationArmy, while China also relies on Russia to satisfy its huge thirst for energy,and has been the main beneficiary of the Russian Eastern Siberia -- PacificOcean oil pipeline.


China also considers Russia to be a necessarybulwark against the U.S. and European union       influence around the world, oftenstanding with Moscow on matters at the United Nations.


"In the past, China and Russia have oftenworked together to block international action (often led by the West) toaddress global crises, by claiming their respect for territorial integrity andsovereignty," said Paul Haenle, director of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Centerof Global Policy in Beijing, noting their recent veto of sanctionsagainst the Syrian regime.


"In practice, this mutual cooperation ismore closely related to Moscow and Beijing's interests than their adherence tothe principle of non-interference. China has supported Russia in its sphere ofinfluence, such as in the Syrian crisis, expecting that Russia would supportChina's interests in Asia, on issues such as North Korea.


"The blatant hypocrisies in Russia'spolicies and actions have been evident this week as Russia invaded Ukrainewhile continuing to oppose further sanctions or action in Syria out of respectfor Syria's territorial integrity and sovereignty."


China's balancing act


Yet China seems likely to remain noncommittalover Ukraine.


China may thinkits interests are better served by continuing to avoid taking a clear stance,hoping that it will be well positioned whatever the outcome.

中国貌似在避免表明自己的立场,以使自己不论发生什么结果都能利益最大化。Paul Haenle, Carnegie-TsinghuaCenter of Global Policy

"China may think its interests are betterserved by continuing to avoid taking a clear stance, hoping that it will bewell positioned whatever the outcome," said Haenle.


"But given China's enhanced influence andpower, the international community increasingly looks to China for a moreprincipled approach and to take a leadership role to help resolve internationalcrises, not simply position itself to be in the most advantageous situationwhen it is all said and done."


Other China watchers believe Beijing's stancemay be rooted in issues closer to home, noting that the country does not wantto give the appearance of backing a separatist movement, given its own problemswith ethnic tensions, primarily in the western regions of Tibet and Xinjiang.


"China does not want to take a positionthat will haunt it domestically," said a Chinese analyst who declined tobe identified because he is not authorized to speak on the record on the topic.


"China has its own challenges concerningethnic relations and even separatist groups. It has to take a cautiouseven-handed approach."


Ukraine interests


China will also be considering its considerableinterests in Ukraine too -- especially its economic ties with the now deposed government inKiev. Bilateral trade last year reached $10 billion,making China Ukraine's second largest trade partner, according to Xinhua.


"China has significant interest inUkraine's future stability," added Haenle. "China is an importanttrading partner of Ukraine's and last December formed a strategic partnershipwith Ukraine, committing billions of dollars in investment in Ukraine'sinfrastructure, aviation, energy, agriculture, and finance industries. China isalso Ukraine's military industry's largest customer; China bought its firstaircraft carrier from Ukraine."


Shen Dingli, professor of InternationalRelations at Shanghai's Fudan University, believes a pragmatic China would beopen to working with the fledgling administration in Kiev.

"If the current Ukraine government can holdon," Shen explained, "then China may work on its relations with thenew Kiev government, as it is more important to keep its stakes, includingeconomic and defense links, with the new regime."


Whichever way the Ukraine crisis turns, otheranalysts believe China could benefit from it. "Ukraine will need China'seconomic cooperation, whether it's a friend of the EU and the U.S., or ofRussia," said Wenfang Tang, of the University of Iowa. "Meanwhile,facing greater pressure and potential sanctions from the West, Russia will behappy to strengthen its relationship with China."



Maybe the Chineses have regognizes that the USA / NATOwants to subordinate Russia and that China will be next.
Therefore they side with Russia (out of pure survivalinstinct).


China has developed a close relation with Russia becauseof the American strategy of containment of China and the arms embargo on China.Obama's Pivot to Asia strategy has caused China to lean even closer to Russia,and to increase spending on defense. It is a wrong move by the USA. The Americansare better off having a close relation with China to contain Russia. A USA -China strategic alliance would be very formidable.


No!Why should the gulf states (like Saudi Arabia etc), Turkey, Pakistan, China beour allies ("firiends"), while Russia should be not?
Russia has a similar political and economical system,religion and culture like us.
In ten years Russia could be like any other EU-state



In ten years, many of the EU countries would be brokefinancially, and sold to China.


China is only strong economically while we allow them tobe...without the west's need for cheap Chinese labor they will deflate so aslong as their with US and EU their fine if US and EU go down so does China. Iam sure more competent Chinese politicians and leaders are fully aware of thisthey just don't want to publicly acknowledge that fact instead choosing to keepto themselves when confronted about the issue


LOL, shining example of hubris.


People like you are willfully ignorant. Don't you knowChina has debt comparable to western countries. You act like because they own asmall percentage of the U.S. [U.S. citizens own the largest percentage of thedebt], that somehow they are going to be sold to China. You shouldn't beallowed to open your mouth because you have no idea what your saying. And learnto use English. When using the future tense you need "will" not"would".


Because the Russians themselves would never go for it. Doyou think that if we suddenly out of the blue said, "Hey Russia, want tojoin NATO and our strategic missile defense grid?" the Russians would say:"Yea sure mans!"

The answer is that they won't. The intention behind yourcomments is good, and I wish that what you are saying would be true, but theactuality is that American and Russian foreign policy is diametrically opposed.Russia's foreign policy under the Putin/Medvedev government has basically beento hinder/oppose everything the US does abroad, such as helping Syria orselling weapons to Iran.

I'm not saying that this isn't Russia's right to do this,I'm simply saying that there are deeper reasons why we aren't about to becomebuddy buddy with Russia anytime soon. In addition, Russia is not a democracy,it's as much a democracy as China is. Ultimately, at the end of the day, thevast majority of power in Russia is in the hands of the billionaire-oligarchsthat control the remnants of the former Soviet state.




In ten years time a pig will fly and wear lipstick Too


It could be...but if however in 10 years Putin is stillPresident than it will be an economically deplete (as he is selling hiscountries natural resources like wildfire) and isolated country.


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