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美国网友热议:中国在赶超美国时拥有什么优势?


China’s Strategy Has Completely Eluded Washington
译者:unknown     发布时间:2014-08-01     超过 0 位网友阅读

中国还有另一个“小”优势,中国文化被认为是天然的可怕武器。

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The Chinese dragon, awake and alert for sometime, is suddenly stretching its arms and embracing what it thinks withconviction is its destiny as a Pacific power. Will the American protectorate inplace for 70 years hold, they ask in Tokyo, in Seoul, in Manila, and now evenin Hanoi.The short but unqualifiedanswer is, “No.”

中国龙,苏醒并张望了一段时间后,忽然张开臂膀拥抱世界,他深信变为太平洋强国将是他的使命,在此地,一些美国保护国历经70年保持不变,中国对日本,马尼拉、以及现在的河内所提出的要求。得到了短而毫无保留的回答—“不”。

China’s emergence is a matter of history, of geography, and, since Deng openedthe reform period in 1978, of accumulated economic power. Behind the rise wewitness now lie Beijing’s view that the post 1945 orderin the western Pacific must be corrected and a fulsome measure of MiddleKingdom determination. Inone of the world’s wounded civilizations, the recoveryof lost greatness has been the national dream since Mao took Beijing in 1949.Does theObama administration grasp any of this? This hasnot been clear for some time and grows more questionable now.Last Saturday, Reutersreported the U.S. issued one of its strongest warnings to China when DefenseSecretary Chuck Hagel told anAsia-Pacific conference thatthe U.S. “will not look the other way when fundamental principles of the international order are beingchallenged.”Hagel said the UnitedStates took no position on the merits of rival territorial claims in theregion, but added, "We firmly oppose any nation’s use of intimidation, coercion, or the threat of force to assertthese claims."

中国的崛起是历史上和地理上的重大事件,而且,自1978年邓积累经济实力的改革开放。其崛起的背后,让我们见识了摆在眼前的北京意图,1945年起设立的西太平洋秩序肯定要有所改变,然而中央王国的抉择惹人生厌。作为一个曾受伤的世界文明,自从毛在1949年取得北京,复兴一直是中国梦想。奥巴马>政府能掌控得了这一切么?答案需要时间,但以目前来看(他的能力)越来越让人生疑。

上周六,据路透社报道,美国针对中国发出强烈警告,国防部长查克黑格尔在亚太会议上表示,美国“当国际秩序基本原则受到挑战,将不会追寻其他方式(去解决)”美国在该地区领土纷争问题上不采取立场,但是他补充说“我们坚决反对任何国家以恐吓、胁迫或者武力威胁的方式来坚持自己的主张”

The posture hereis not right.The primary lesson to be grasped in Washington and the Asian capitals is that the lesstime spent with fingers in the dike the better.The task now is to devise sensible, imaginative, sustainable policy responsesthat protect the interests of the U.S. and its allies while altering theclimate in Asia from the poisonous antagonism we have to accommodation and onto cooperation.This can be done, providingthe wit and guts are there.Recommendation No. 1 forWashington: Cut out the political appointees game in the foreign service.Restore the State Department’s institutional memory withgood brains versed in history, the languages, and culture as opposed to rationalchoice theory.Recommendation No. 2:Take control of the policy process away from Defense and the military and giveit back to State, thus correcting an error that has for decades beendetrimental to U.S. interests and the American profile in Asia.

这种立场不可取,华盛顿与亚洲国家所汲取的首要教训是,不要把时间浪费在寄予加强围堵上。当前任务是制订出一种理智的,富有想象力的,可持续的政策回应,保护美国及其盟国的利益,亚洲风向的变化主要源于对抗情绪,我们不得不去适应并保持合作。这是可以做到的,但前提是要具有智慧和勇气。对华盛顿第一个建议:在对外协助中,停止政治代理人活动。恢复曾经充满智慧,通晓历史,语言,文化和理性的国务院职能机构。第二个建议:让政治进程远离国防部以及军方的操控,并把它返还给国家,以此改正错误,即改变近几十年来不利于美国利益以及美在亚洲势力的局面

The moment to rebuildstrategy, ground up, is upon us for a simple reason: China has chosen it.Beijing has for many years waited for the right occasion to assert itself withconcrete actions. As our jargon has it, China is“calling us out.”There is not much ambiguityon this point. China has been increasingly aggressive in asserting its positionin an islands dispute with Japan since last year. Six months ago came itsdeclaration of an air defense zone that intersects with those Japan, SouthKorea, and Taiwan have had in place, courtesy of American cartographers, sincethe early Cold War years.More recently Beijing hasadvanced maritime claims in the South China Sea that place its rights within afew dozen miles of the Philippines shoreline and 300 miles from the mainland.In its boldest moves to date, it recentlytowed an oilrig intowaters claimed by Vietnam, prompting protests in Hanoi that resulted in fourdeaths.These are not separatequestions. They are better understood as the start of China’s campaign to renovate the power balance in the western Pacific.David Pilling, Asia editor at the FinancialTimes, sees savvy tacticaldesign as a unifying theme across the region. “China’s probing the edge of what it can do,” Pilling said the other day. “Theseare issues Beijing knows America will not react to other than rhetorically.”

综上所述,重建对策,对于我们,理由很简单:中国选择了它。北京多年来一直等待恰当的时机,利用实际行动维护自己的主张。就如我们行话所说的,中国意思是“叫我们走开”。这点意思很明确。自去年起,中国与日本岛屿争端中越来越强势表达自己的立场。六个月前所设立的防空识别区,与冷战初期美制地图中标出的日本,韩国和台湾部分防空识别区产生了重叠。

近期,在南中国海北京按照预先的海事主张,在离菲律宾海岸线几十公里远并距大陆300英里的地方维权。迄今为止最为大胆的举动,是把石油钻井平台开进越南海域,从而引发了河内的抗议活动,造成四人死亡。这些问题并不孤立。这一切可以充分理解为,中国开始重塑西太平洋实力平衡。

亚洲金融时报编辑戴维皮林认为,以精明的战术计划为主旨贯彻于整个地区。“中国正不断的试探,它能做什么,”皮林说。“北京清楚,对于这些问题,美国不会做谴责以外的反应。”

Pilling, who is among themost astute Asia analysts now in the field, takes a very long view of Chinesethinking. China turned inward after the 1949 revolution,he says, finding Washington’s Pax Pacificaobjectionable but expedient. So did Deng, who said in effect, “Let’s proceed withour reforms and choose our moment carefully.”“Somepeople took acquiescence in the post-1945 order to be permanent policy, but it’s a misreading,” Pilling said. “If one is to take one’s time, the only question left is, “When?” And it now starts to look as if the answer is, “Now.”O.K., Pilling, but why now?The 2008 financial crisiswas a tripwire, in Pilling’s view. America no longerappeared infallible; China, as America’s biggestbanker, a WTO member, and ahead of Japan as the No. 2 economic power, gainedconfidence. “There’s a prestigefactor here, too,” Pilling added.Equally, theLaw of the Sea had long been on the U.N.’s docket,but only recently have nations marked out formal territorial claims.When Hillary Clinton, then Secretary of State, asserted America’s role in protecting Asian sea lanes on avisit to Hanoi in 2010, Beijing’s back stiffened. “Critical point,” Pilling thinks. “China saw no role forAmerica in Asian disputes. What if relations with the referee turnedhostile?”

皮林,是当今亚洲问题领域最敏锐的分析家,擅长以中国人的视角思考问题。中国在1949年经历重大变革后把目光转向国内,发现华盛顿一成不变的太平洋主导模式令人反感。因此邓说,事实上“让我们在改革中前行并看准时机”“有些人对1945年相沿成习的政策采取了默许态度,但它是一种误读,“皮林说。“若是一个人在等待某个时机,唯一的问题是,“何时?“,若是现在提出这个问题,答案就是“现在”。

好吧,皮林,为什么是现在?皮林认为,2008年的金融危机成了分界点。美国已变得不再可靠;中国,作为美国最大的债主, WTO其中的一员,又领先日本成为第二大经济体,获得了信用。“这其中还有威望的因素“皮林补充道。同样,海洋法一直是联合国的标志,但近期有着正式的领土要求的国家除外。

时任国务卿希拉里克林顿,在2010年访问河内时曾宣称美国起着保护亚洲海上航线的作用,北京旋即感到紧张。皮林认为这是“临界点”。“中国认为美国在亚洲纠纷中没起到作用。偏袒对方.“

At the security conferencein Singapore at the end of last week, the shared concern among Hagel and hiscounterparts was the pressure Beijing now intentionally exerts toweaken Washington’s network of alliances with regional capitals.This is almost certainly an accurate perception.Yet, it would be a mistaketo assume China intends to replace Pax Americana with a Pax Sinica. It is toobusy at home, cannot afford any such an ambition, and has proven from Mao toDeng and since that pragmatic self-interest figures high in itscalculations. This is the door to renovated relations Washingtonmust not fail to step through.Hagel’s criticism of Beijing’s recent moves in theregion—“intimidation and coercion,” he said—was a mistake onnumerous counts. First, it was Hagel’s remark. Thedefense secretary should do less traveling in Asia and Secretary Kerry more.Second, Hagel betrayed anxiety, and one must avoid that with the Chinese.Third, he signaled that Washington remains determined tofight the forlorn fight against the incoming tide.Finally, Hagel elicited tworeactions in the region, neither desirable. Beijingdenouncedthe conference pointblank. Elsewhere, Hagel’s talk will merely confirm the widely shared impression that talk isall Washington finally has on offer.Asia Sentinel, anauthoritative online journal published in Hong Kong, said it this way in arecentedition: “For a nationthat is supposedly paying more attention to Asia and building relationshipswith old and new friends, the U.S. response to recent Chinese moves againstVietnam and the Philippines has been mealy-mouthed.”Not the desired effect, to put the point mildly.

上周末在新加坡举行安全会议上,都在关注黑格尔和他的同行受到来自北京的压力,即北京现在有意削弱华盛顿盟友影响力。这无疑是一个准确的认知。然而,如果认为中国打算用“中国主导下的和平”取代“美国主导的和平”那就错了。他国内事务太多了,承担不了这么大的报负,事实证明从毛到邓,一直实行的是务实的利己主义。这是一道重塑关系的大门,华盛顿不得不跨过。

黑格尔对北京近期在该地区活动展开批评——(说中国)“恐吓和胁迫”,他所说的从各方面来看都有问题。首先,这是黑格尔的看法。国防部尽量少来亚洲,应该让克里多来几次。其次,黑格尔暴露出了焦虑,他必须避开中国。再次,他透漏出,华盛顿决心孤注一掷地逆流而上。最后,黑格尔引起该地区两种反映,这两种反映都不会让人称心。北京毫不犹豫地针锋相对。从某方面来看,黑格尔的谈话纯粹是照本宣科,讲的意思是美国将提供最后的依靠。

亚洲前哨,香港网上权威杂志,在最新一期说道:“对于一个民族,理应重视亚洲,并与新老朋友建立关系,近期在处理中国与越南和菲律宾对抗问题时,美国总是拐弯抹角。”这决不会达到预期的效果,应该要温和些。 



Neil 1 day ago 12 45
I believe the US should look at the historyof the Roman Empire. We get involved in every squabble and conflictinternationally. This depletes our military and finances. The Roman Empire fellbecause it eventually could not sustain its vast empire. Like it or not, Russiaand China are regional powers. From recent events, we understandthat neither can be contained despite our threats and sanctions. While I agreethat China is more aggressive than Russia regionally, the time to unleash Japanhas come. Japan remains the most technologically advanced in Asia. As long aswe are involved in their protection, there can never be a balance of powerregionally between China and Japan. Japan should be allowed to grow its militarymight to keep the Chinese at bay. US protectionism can't be the solution, as wehave seen in Cremia.

我认为美国应该参考下古罗马历史。每次争吵和国际冲突都能牵扯到我们。这样会耗尽我们的军力和资金的,古罗马的灭亡是因为它终归无法维持其庞大的帝国。不管你喜不喜欢,俄罗斯和中国就是地区强国。从近期所发生的事儿看,我们明白了这两个国家根本不在乎我们的威胁和制裁。

虽然我承认在地区事务上中国比俄罗斯更强势,是时候放开日本了。在亚洲日本技术仍是最先进,只要我们悉心保护他们,中日之间的平衡就不会被打破。应该允许日本扩大军事力量,才有可能把中国堵在海内。美国的保护主义解决不了问题,正如我们所看到的克里米亚。



American-disease 1 day ago 19 18
Once Japan grow they will strike usa

日本一旦起来,他们就会去干美国



Neil 1 day ago 15 14
That is like saying Germany and Italy willstrike the US. It makes no sense. All of these WW2 enemy nations prosperbecause of the US, they have no interest in attacking the US. Japan's greatestthreat is No. Korea and China. Japan is an American model of democracy in Asia.

(回楼上)这就像是在说德国和意大利要打美国。毫无道理啊。所有这些二战敌国都是靠美国发家的,他们根本没兴趣袭击美国。日本头号的威胁是朝鲜和中国。日本在亚洲实行的是美式民主。



James 1 day ago 10 13
Neil, you can't compare apples and oranges.Germany truly apologized and disavowed the actions of the Nazis. Japan claimswhat they did never happened. they were just sitting beside their rice fieldsand the big bad Americans dropped these big nasty bombs on them for no goodreason. They are looking for an excuse right now to return to heir so calledJapanese imperial power. History has a bad habit of repeating itself and Japanwill try again. Anyway Abe's family were war criminals!

(回neil)尼尔,你不能把不同的东西放在一起比。德国真诚道歉并批判纳粹行为。可日本则声称他们从来没犯过错。说他们只是坐在稻田旁,那些美国大坏蛋毫无缘由的就朝着他们扔下两课大炸弹。他们正在寻找重返日本帝国的借口。历史上有个重演的坏习惯,日本想要重复过去。无论怎样,安倍家族都是战犯!



Malib 1 day ago 6 34
China has two distinctadvantages in his quest to surpass us in terms of power. Firstly, Its leaders and people know the how their country hadsuffered for a long time, and want ,with pride, that the don't experience thatsuffering again, therefore they strive for that goal. In the other hand the USAbeing new compared to China, have not really experience real pain/sufferingsand do not appreciated our blessings, We seem arrogant and going the oppositedirection. Our leaders/people seem myopic that desires short-term gains; worsewe seem losing our passion for our country. I remember that even our currentfirst lady said at one time that she stopped being proud of our country.Secondly, China has four times the pouplation of the USA and a lot more peopleto work for their goals. For these two reasons, and there other reasons, it isinevitable China will surpass us as a world power.

在追求超越美国时,中国有两个明显的优势。首先,中国的领导人和人民都知道他们遭受了很长一段时间的苦难,带着希望与自尊,为了不再次步入苦难,因此,他们为了这个目标而奋斗。还有,美国与新中国相比,确实没有经历真正的痛苦和苦难,而且还不珍视眼前的福分,我们显得傲慢又背道而驰。

我们的领导人和人民短视,只顾眼前利益;更糟糕的是,我们对我们的国家正失去热情。我记得,即使我们现在的第一夫人都曾说过,她不再为我们国家而感到骄傲。其次,中国的人口是美国的四倍,而且有相当多的人为他们的目标而努力奋斗。以上两个原因,再加上其他原因,中国超越美国成为世界强国将不可避免。



lei 1 day ago 2 10
an excellent and intelligent point of view,very rare on Yahoo comment section.

优秀和理智的观点,在雅虎评论中相当少见



Andrew Kwan 1 day ago 5 10
China has another 'minor' advantage,Chinese culture sees weapons are of bad omen in nature.

中国还有另一个“小”优势,中国文化被认为是天然的可怕武器。

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