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中国中产阶级的真相,澳大利亚网民吓坏了


The killer fact about the Chinese middle class
译者:unknown     发布时间:2018-01-14     超过 0 位网友阅读

澳大利亚要做的就是卖掉自己,富裕中国,把我们变成他们的饭碗

原文地址:http://www.theage.com.au


Behind China's recent 6.9 per cent growth in GDP lies a bigger fact: between 2009 and 2030 the country will add 850 million to its middle class. I would call that a killer fact.

在中国近期6.9%的GDP增长背后有一个更大的事实:在2009年到2030年之间,这个国家将会有8亿5千万人成为中产阶级。我得说这是一个致命的事实。

中国中产阶级的真相

Nothing else on Canberra's agenda – talk about innovation relations with India or tax cuts for business – competes with that statistic for its potential impact on Australian living standards. It is equivalent to a new continent emerging somewhere to Australia's north with 850 million more consumers asking Australia to fill its supermarkets sell them places in our schools and universities invest our expertise in aged and health care and let them come as tourists investors and cashed-up migrants.

鉴于这个数字对澳大利亚人未来生活水准的潜在影响如此之大,在堪培拉的议程表上,诸如与印度的全新关系、削减商业税之类的议题还没有什么能和它相提并论。相当于在澳大利亚北方出现了一片新兴大陆,多出了8亿5千万消费者,他们需要我们来填满超市,需要我们出售大学和学校的席位,发挥我们在养老和医疗保险上的专业知识,还会以游客投资者和富裕移民的身份来我们这里。

A killer fact that sweet deserves to be interrogated. To what extent can we trust it?

这么好的事应该被审评。我们能相信它到什么程度?

It was presented in a 2010 OECD working paper by Dr Homi Kharas now co-director in the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution. His prediction was that by 2030 Europe would add only 16 million to its middle class. Small stuff and North America's middle class was set to shrink by 16 million. In this context 850 million more middle-class Chinese dominate world economic prospects. That means the Chinese middle class will grow from 12 per cent of its population in 2009 to 73 per cent in 2030. By middle class Kharas means household income equivalent to between $US16000 ($20254) and $US160000 per year a widely used definition.

由Homi Kharas博士即布鲁金斯学会全球经济和发展项目的共同主任所编写的关于2012经合组织的工作论文。他的预测是,到了2030,欧洲中产阶级只会增加1600万人。北美洲的中产阶级将缩减1600万人。在这一背景下,新增8.5亿人的中国中产阶级将主宰世界经济前景。这意味着中国新兴中产阶级将从2009的占人口12%增长到2030的73%,每个家庭收入在16000美元 (20254澳元)和160000美元之间。

I recently learnt that Kharas had released a new report this one for Brookings. He has had access to more accurate data. For that first survey China had provided price data for only 11 cities or provinces. The latest was able to cover all provinces. This has enabled a more accurate mapping of the middle-class explosion.

我最近得知Kharas已经在布鲁金斯学会发布了一份新的报告,他有机会获得更准确的数据了。在第一次调查中,仅仅包含了中国11个省市提供的价格数据,最新的一份报告能够覆盖所有省份,这可以更准确地预测出中产阶级爆炸式的出现。

The new report confirms China's middle class growth is on track.

新的报告证实了中国的中产阶级正在增长。

Kharas has however upxed one essential: the spending of this expanded middle class is already much greater than in his original study.

然而Kharas提出至关重要的一点:这一正在逐步扩大的中产阶级消费已经比他原来的研究更大了。

The original study forecast that China would account for $US10 trillion in consumption or 18 per cent of the global total. That compares with $US4 trillion and 7 per cent in the US and $12.8 trillion and 23 per cent in India.

最初的研究预测,中国将会有10万亿美元的消费量,将占全球消费总额的18%。相比之下,美国是4万亿美元和7%,而印度则是12.8万亿美元和23%。

The new study shows China's spending will reach $US14.3 trillion accounting for 22 per cent of the global total. By contrast projections for India's share have contracted: middle-class spending there will be worth $US10.7 trillion and 17 per cent. When I spoke to Kharas about his latest findings he told me India's performance was disappointing: "We reduced our estimates of India's growth. It's not doing as well as China and South Korea did at comparable stages. It should be growing at double digit rates."

新的研究显示,中国的消费将达到14.3万亿,将占全球消费总额的22%。而印度的份额对比预测有所缩减:中产阶级的消费将有10.7万亿美元,占17%。当我和Kharas谈论他的最新研究结果的时候,他告诉我,印度的表现真令人失望:“我们降低了印度的经济增长预测,在同等阶段,印度并没有表现的和中国和韩国一样好,它应该是以两位数的速度增长的。”

The projections for the US middle class have not changed: it will account for just 7 per cent of global spending.

对美国中产阶级的预测没有改变:它只占全球支出的7%。




gavJul 27 2017 at 12:33am
We still have people who think its fine for our high schools to pump out uneducated monolingual graduates though.

我们仍然有人认为,我们的高中教育出没文化的只会一种语言的毕业生是没问题的。



AEGISJul 27 2017 at 5:00am
This is soft power outreach on the part of the Chinese Government. This narrative is part of shaping opinion in favour of things like the current Belt and Road Initiative (new Silk Road) and normalising Mainland Chinese activities in the South China Sea and Antartica.

这是中国政府的软实力宣传,这种宣传将形成舆论,从而支持一路一带(新丝路)以及正常化中国在南海和南极洲的活动。

What it misses out on is where the money to support this spending is coming from. The new Chinese middle class has never known a recession let it is living on higher levels of debt than we would be comfortable with.

支持这笔开支的资金来自哪里?这是一个遗漏的问题,中国新兴的中产阶级从未经历过经济衰退,他们的债务水平比我们所能适应的债务水平还要高。

There will be a crash - that is economic reality. Then the Chinese middle class will have to revisit its wants and needs.

这将会有一场灾难,那就是经济现实。这样中国的中产阶级将不得不重新审视自己的需求。



fizzybeerBAN ALL DONORSJul 27 2017 at 5:05am
I do believe the Chinese are donating to the school system in some way.
It is also a matter of fact that they are donating to the Australian political process in some way.
Dastyari may be one who is well placed to explain exactly how that works but I have no doubt other politicians and ex politicians would also be in a position to help us with our understanding of all that entails.

我相信中国人在某种程度上是在为学校系统捐款。
事实上他们也在以某种方式向澳大利亚的政治进程捐款。
Dastyari可能是一个很好地解释了这些如何起作用的人,但我毫不怀疑,其他政客和前政治家们也会帮助我们理解一切。



IgJul 27 2017 at 5:31am
The big problem is the thinking that Australia will have anything to offer China other than resources and food.
Those that think of education and innovation are kidding themselves. Asian countries students are already 2 years ahead of ours and their universities are doing far better as well. As for innovation look at which country is producing the most patents in the world....yes China.
Australia will meanly provide resources and food....oh and call centres and maybe domestic help.

最大的问题是这样一种想法:除了资源和食物,澳洲还可以向中国提供其他产品。那些认为可以向中国提供教育和创新的人真是自欺欺人。
亚洲国家的学生已经比我们领先了2年,他们的大学也做得好多了。至于创新,看看哪个国家的专利是世界上最多的。正是中国。
澳大利亚将会卑贱地提供资源和食物。哦,以及电话服务中心,也许还有“家政助理"。



gmannswJul 27 2017 at 5:36am
......who turn into politicians who this we should sell everything not nailed down.

谁成为政客,谁就应该卖掉一切而不是紧紧抓住。



housemartinhong kongJul 27 2017 at 5:55am
That's ignores the fact that so does China they don't promote or make compulsory English as a language. Furthermore China's growth won't stop English from being the global language of business either. The world won't suddenly be speaking Mandarin overnight. Having said that English standards are dropping in HK as it looks further and further towards it's neighbour for economic potential opportunity and security. The real issue lies with Australian parents who should be pushing their children to learn another language and the schools to both offer it and encourage it. I know when I was in secondary school I had a choice of 3 foreign languages to learn Italian French or Japanese and it was compulsory to choose one I chose Italian and am still glad I did as it gave me a grounding in languages. Perhaps it was the school you went to that should have had a broader focus.

这忽略了一个事实,中国不会进行强制性英语学习,虽然中国各方面的增长是不会停止的,但英语作为一种国际商业语言,世界是不会突然在一夜之间开始说普通话。据说,香港的英语水平正在下降,因为它越来越向它的邻居寻求经济机会和安全。真正的问题在于澳大利亚的父母应该让他们的孩子学习另一种语言,学校也必须提供并鼓励学习。我在中学的时候,我可以选择3种外语比如意大利语、法语或日语,其中必须选一门,于是选了意大利语,我仍然很高兴能做到这一点,因为它给了我学习另一种语言的基础。也许你去的那所学校应该对外语有更广泛的关注。



Neck DeepJul 27 2017 at 6:14am
We are already destined to be the 24th province of China. Effectively their kindy with sandbox providing ore and education. So much for the clever country!

我们已经注定成为中国的第二十四个省。我们可以提供矿石和教育。这个聪明的国家将得到很多!



shoot the messengerJul 27 2017 at 6:53am
What Australia will do is sell it's own country out to enrich China. We are supposed to become their food bowl. What about being our own food bowl. We send our best food OS and a forced by the WTO to import rubbish at still high prices while our local producers are screwed over by the supermarkets and Australians that would rather buy second rate stuff that is a bit cheaper. We will also be expected to supply them with our resources be it water arable land gas iron ore etc and all the while we see our own prices sky-rocket.

澳大利亚要做的就是卖掉自己,富裕中国,把我们变成他们的饭碗。做我们自己的饭碗如何 ?我们送出最好的食物并被世贸组织强迫以高价进口垃圾,而由于超市和澳洲人都喜欢购买更便宜的外国次等品,导致本地厂家没有生意可做。他们也期望我们提供资源,包括水、耕地、油气、铁矿石等等,而我们自己的价格却在飞速上涨。

China is not the world's cure it's quite the opposite a horrific thought to see their insidious meddling slowly permeating all aspects of other countries. Let's face it they are still a pariah state with no regard for human life no regard for freedom of speech they are the world's biggest bullies but squeal like a stuck pig if you dare criticise them or do anything they don't like. They have decimated their environment with insane growth at any cost they have thrown their rural population under a bus to empower the upper middle class and rich in the cities they are running amok in the South China sea itching for a naval fight with the US. They stand for everything that should make us sick but hey as long as we can sell them stuff who cares right.

中国并不是拯救世界的药方,相反,细思极恐的是他们的暗中干预正在慢慢渗透到其他国家的各个方面。让我们面对现实吧,他们仍然是一个被遗弃的国家,不尊重人命,不尊重言论自由,他们是世界上最大的恶棍,但如果你敢批评他们,或者做他们不喜欢的事情,他们就会像一头被困的猪一样尖叫。他们不惜任何代价,摧毁了自己的环境,不惜牺牲自己的农村人口,让城市的中产阶级富裕起来。他们在南海疯狂地想要与美国进行一场海战。他们代表着让我们患病的一切,但谁又在乎呢,只要我们能卖给他们东西就好了。



JohnJul 27 2017 at 7:47am
"Killer fact" - 850M middle class - and China wants to keep it all for themselves. Any foreign companies setting up in China are eventually forced out after other local Chinese companies have either stolen hacked or acquired their business methods software or market. The list is very long - Crown Apple GKN etc etc. The Chinese Communist Party doesn't want foreign companies benefiting from their domestic market. They want it all for themselves and just to exploit Western companies whose employees are arrested in trumped-up charges of corruption and jailed (as with Crown). The time is coming when the US will be imposing trade sanctions on China for a variety of reasons but we're not fooled by the so-called Chinese middle class market - they don't want Western competitors only to have it all for themselves.

“杀手锏”-8亿5千万人的中产阶级-中国想要为了自己保留一切。在中国当地企业以窃取,黑客或者其他手段获得企业经营方法,软件或者市场后,任何设立在中国的外国企业最终都被迫退出。这个名单很长-皇冠苹果GKN等等。中国GC党不希望外国公司受益于国内市场。他们想要一切,为了剥削西方公司,这些公司的雇员会因为莫须有的指控而被捕入狱(如王冠)。这个时刻已经来了,美国由于各种各样的原因将对中国实施贸易制裁,而不再受所谓的中国中产阶级市场的忽悠,他们不想要西方竞争者,他们只想要拥有一切。



Bob FossilACTJul 27 2017 at 8:05am
It's clear that not speaking English is a serious disadvantage in this global world.

 很明显,不会说英语在这个全球化世界中是一个严重的缺点。

It's also clear that *only* speaking English is a disadvantage.

很明显“仅仅”会说英语也是一个缺点。

Expecting everyone else to speak your language while making no effort to reciprocate means that all those people are instantly more desirable to employ.

 指望别人说你自己的语言而不去试图说对方的语言,这意味着这些人更值得雇佣。



BenderJul 27 2017 at 8:05am
But at least they'll know all about tolerance and diversity and global warming.

 但至少他们将会知道关于宽容、多样性和全球变暖的知识。

The future of education must be centred around producing the next batch of professionals and managers. If we don't position ourselves to manage and advise businesses we won't cope in the future global economy.

教育的未来必须围绕在下一批专业人员和管理人员的产出上。如果我们不为自己管理团队和经营建议定位,我们将无法在未来的全球经济中应对自如。



SkepticJul 27 2017 at 9:29am
850 million to become middle class ???? How by selling cheap inferior $2 products to the west ?? What will all these 850 million people be doing ? Generating what ??to produce the unbelievably large wealth that would be required to make them all middle class ???

8亿5000万人将成为中产阶级???生产什么能创造出让他们成为中产阶级所需要的难以置信的大量财富???这8亿5000万个人都在干什么?生产了什么?为了让他们成为中产阶级需要创造的难以置信的大量财富???



housemartinhong kongJul 27 2017 at 9:37am
I see the left is once again defaulting to it's usual schtick of bashing the Chinese and pushing it's Yellow Peril is Coming trope. Moral Mortgage on all things multicultural? Rubbish.

我明白了,左派再次抨击中国以及使用“黄祸将至”这样的老套路。一切多元文化都需要被道德抵押掉吗?



fizzybeerBAN ALL DONORSJul 27 2017 at 9:55am
Housie
How would foreign donations to Chinese politicians be viewed?
I realise there can be no comparison of donating to various parties as there is only one political party the Communist Party..

如何看待外国对中国政客的捐赠?
我意识到,因为GC党是中国唯一的一个政党,无法对向各种政党的捐赠进行比较。



Right footed left kickJul 27 2017 at 11:11am
Once again HM blames the 'left' for comments made without any actual basis for the view!
Keep making up and fighting against that imaginary army... it's working well for you

HM在没有任何实际的根据上再一次发言指责“左倾”!

继续装,继续和那个假想的军队战斗…这对你来说干得很好。



housemartinhong kongJul 27 2017 at 12:52pm
Right foot: "Once again HM blames the 'left' for comments made without any actual basis for the view!"

HM在没有任何实际的根据上再一次发言指责“左倾”!

The basis is clear just look in here from a lot of posters they're tying the Chinese to the stake it's like a town square flogging.

很容易找到根据的,你看这里那么多网友的评论内容,他们正在把中国人绑在桩上,这就像城镇广场鞭笞一样。

You only have to have seen the excruciating racism that flowed from the left during the ChAFTA negotiations and final signing it had me red faced with shame and embarrassment. This was also during the time of Bill Shorten's screeching abuse towards the Japanese on the back of a flat bed truck to hordes of epithet shouting and cheering unxists.

在中澳自贸协定正事签署期间,你可以看到那些从左倾分子流露出来的极端民族主义,这让我感到十分羞愧。在那个时候比尔还躲在平板车后面,用他那沙哑的嗓音谩骂日本。

BTW: I've seen it too many times to mention as well. Whenever there are any articles on the Chinese the comments sections in here are full of the left beating up on the Chinese and if it's not them then it's the Americans.

我见识过太多这种事了。每当有任何关于中国人的文章时,这里的评论区就会充满左倾分子,发表针对中国人的评论,当然如果不是他们,那就是美国人。



CaroJul 27 2017 at 2:54pm
In Canada the Chinese Flag flies over many Canadian Schools. It is called: Chinese Imperialism. It will happen here in the not too distant future. Australia is not the only country being colonised by the Chinese. Look at Africa and Timor and many more countries. Imperialism!!!

在加拿大,中国国旗在很多学校飘着呢。它被称为:中国帝国主义。它会发生在不太遥远的将来,不仅澳大利亚会被中国殖民,看看非洲、东帝汶等等国家。帝国主义!!!



Gymealad Jul 27 2017 at 1:23am
When this many people of any country decide to go travelling even if only 20% go how are surrounding countries or smaller European countries going to cope and what effects will it have on their lifestyle.
The same goes for the demand for goods services and quality food.
We need to start planning now.

当这个国家的人决定去旅游,即使只有20%去,周边国家或更小的欧洲国家将如何应对,这会对他们的生活方式会产生什么影响?。
对商品服务和优质食品的需求也是如此。
我们需要现在就开始计划。


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