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印度网友分析:为什么印度不是一个超级大国?


Special edition : Why isn't India a superpower ?
译者:unknown     发布时间:2020-11-10     超过 0 位网友阅读

印度就像一头生病的大象,全身都是绝症和开放性伤口,这样一个国家怎么能成长为第一世界国家




Editor’s note :
Dear readers,
First a big thank you for the recent numbers on this blog which have been beyond my expectations (we had more than 5300 views as I’m writing this on the latest episode about “5G and why it’s not dangerous” that you can read here and the number of subscribers quadrupled)

编者按:
亲爱的读者:
首先,我非常感谢你们,最近在这个博客上的数据,超出了我的预期(在我撰写这篇关于“5G&5G为什么不危险”的最新一集时,我们的浏览量超过了5300次,订阅量翻了两番)


为什么印度不是一个超级大国?

Also, thank you to everyone that’s sharing the blog among their circle, I have seen some of you do that whether that’s on Facebook, public forums, Twitter, etc.
Please subscribe if you like it by clicking on subscribe. No spam, you’ll only receive new editions in a nice formatted e-mail.

另外,感谢大家在自己的圈子里分享博客,我看到有些人不管是在Facebook、公共论坛、Twitter等都有这样做。
如果你喜欢,请点击订阅,这里不发垃圾邮件,你只会收到格式精美的新版邮件。

Let’s dig into it.
India Versus China - Wasatch Global Investors
China is taking over, India ? Not so much.

让我们深入研究一下。
《印度 vs 中国 》-华盛顿全球投资者
中国正在接管世界,印度呢? 还差的远。

India has the world's second largest population. The PGR for the country is 1.1. A very large number of India's population, about 50%, is below the age group of 24. This provides the nation with a large workforce for many decades, helping in its growth.

印度是世界上人口第二多的国家,这个国家的 PGR 是1.1,印度有很大一部分人口,大约50%,年龄在24岁以下,这为印度提供了数十年庞大的劳动力,有助于其经济增长。

More than 35 million Indians live across the globe. Under fair opportunities, they have become socio-economically successful— especially in the US and the UK where they are the highest earning ethnic demographic.

超过3500万印度人生活在世界各地,在公平的机会下,他们在社会经济方面取得了成功ーー尤其是在他们收入最高的美国和英国。

Since the start of the 21st century, annual average GDP growth has been 6% to 7%, and from 2014 to 2018, India was the world's fastest growing major economy, surpassing China. Historically, India was the largest economy in the world for most of the two millennia from the 1st until 19th century.

自21世纪初以来,印度的年均 GDP 增长率一直在6% 到7% 之间,从2014年到2018年,印度超过中国,成为世界上增长最快的主要经济体,从历史上看,从公元1世纪到19世纪,印度在两千年的大部分时间里都是世界上最大的经济体。

When will India have more people than China?
Editor’s note : Officially India’s population will surpass China’s very soon but it’s likely already the case.

什么时候印度的人口会超过中国?
编者按: 官方数据显示,印度的人口将很快超过中国,但事实上很可能已经超过了。

What is this demographic challenge? Well, an analysis of global population trends shows that over time, most likely by 2025, India will become the world’s most populous nation. But much of this growth is taking place in two states: Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. These two states are India’s largest and third largest states (with a combined population of 302m), but also India’s two poorest states (with a per capita income ranging from US$347 to US$450 a year). In this light, vibrant economic growth is unlikely to be sustainable in India. We are already witnessing the first signs of stagnation in the Indian economy.

这一人口统计学数字挑战何在? 一项全球人口趋势分析显示,随着时间的推移,很有可能到2025年,印度将成为世界上人口最多的国家,但这种增长主要发生在两个邦: 北方邦和比哈尔邦,这两个邦是印度第一大和第三大邦(总人口为3.02亿) ,但也是印度最贫穷的两个邦(人均年收入在347美元到450美元之间),这种情况下,印度充满活力的经济增长不太可能持续下去,我们已经看到了印度经济停滞的初步迹象。

Part II:
Editor’s note : The woman problem in India is a huge deal, whilst this is improving in big cities, it is still a major problem. In the word of Marx, a healthy society is one where Women and Men are equal. I find it paradoxical that India has a strong Marxist heritage and that the Women are so oppressed, Marxism is definitely pro-Women (Read here)

第二部分:
编者按:
印度的女性问题是个大问题,虽然大城市的女性问题正在改善,但仍然是个大问题。
用马克思的话说,一个健康的社会是男女平等的社会,我发现印度有很强的马克思主义传统,与妇女受到如此压迫,这是矛盾的,马克思主义肯定是支持妇女的。

India is the most dangerous country in the world to be a woman, according to the Thomson Reuters Foundation, citing severely high risks of sexual violence and slave labour, including human trafficking for domestic work, forced labor, forced marriage, and sexual slavery.

根据汤姆森·路透基金会的数据,对女性来说,印度是世界上最危险的国家,它列举了印度严重的性暴力和奴役风险,包括贩卖人口从事家政工作、强迫劳动、强迫婚姻和性奴役。

In India, a rape occurs every 20 minutes, according to the New York Times, with minors being hit at an alarming rate. Five women are raped every day in Delhi alone, the nation’s capital. Delhi has not only the highest crime rate but also the highest rape rate, sitting at 40% relative to 19 major cities, according to India’s National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB).

据《纽约时报》报道,在印度,每20分钟就会发生一起强奸案,其中未成年人被强奸的比率惊人,仅在印度首都德里,每天就有5名妇女被强奸,根据印度国家犯罪记录局(NCRB)的数据,德里不仅是犯罪率最高的地方,也是强奸率最高的地方,德里不仅犯罪率最高,而且强奸率也最高,达到40% 。

India has the highest absolute number of child brides in the world — 15,509,000, according to UNICEF. 27% of girls in India are married off before their 18th birthday — consent or no consent — and 7% are married before the age of 15.

联合国儿童基金会(UNICEF)的数据显示,印度的童养媳绝对数量为全球最高,为1550.9万人,27% 的印度女孩在18岁生日之前结婚,7% 的女孩在15岁之前结婚。

Editor’s note : The gender gap is also a big problem. The root is mainly because a bride’s family must pay the groom’s family a large dowry of cash and gifts. To be perfectly frank, this is fucking stupid and I can’t believe it is still a thing.

编者按:
性别差异也是一个大问题,这主要是因为新娘家必须向新郎家支付一大笔现金和礼物作为嫁妆,老实说,这太他妈愚蠢了,我简直不敢相信这种事情的存在。

So basically, for centuries, instead of mending their own ways, reconsidering their values, and reuating thier beliefs, many Indians think its better to just kill the girl, conveniently.

基本上,几个世纪以来,许多印度人不是修正自己的生活方式,重新考虑自己的价值观,重新评估自己的信仰,而是认为直接杀死这个女孩更好,更方便。

India is a country which has continuously underutilized its potential of the Ocean. She is sitting in the right above the busiest sea routes in the world yet doesn’t have a single transhipment hub. What I’m referring to here is the Heartland-Rimland Theory.

印度是一个一直未充分利用其海洋潜力的国家,她坐落在世界上最繁忙的海上航线的右上方,却没有一个转运枢纽,我这里指的是“中心-边缘地带”理论。

Not even for a single time in its history it has utilized it blue resources completely barring the Great Cholas – The Empire which controlled the Indian Ocean.
Now she needs to break from the old shackles and take some aggressive measures.

在其历史上,除了朱罗王朝(Cholas)控制过印度洋,印度甚至没有一次利用过它的蓝色资源。
现在她需要打破旧的枷锁,采取一些积极的措施。

Editor’s note : Investments in infrastructures is still very much behind China. This picture would never happen in China.

编者按:
图:基础设施投资仍然远远落后于中国,这种场景在中国绝对不会出现。

Consider, for example, the treatment of India’s armed forces. Sitharaman barely mentioned defense spending (indeed, for much of the first half of her speech, she barely mentioned any numbers at all). Perhaps that was because the defense outlay has barely kept up with inflation for years, and under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reached record lows as a percentage of gross domestic product. Not since China humiliated India in a traumatic border war in 1962 has any government allowed defense spending to fall so low. Last year, it came in at less than 1.6% of GDP.

考虑一下印度军队的待遇,西塔拉曼几乎没有提及国防开支 ( 事实上,在她上半场演讲的大部分时间里,她几乎没有提及任何数字), 也许这是因为多年来国防支出几乎跟不上通货膨胀,而且在总理纳伦德拉 · 莫迪的领导下,国防支出占国内生产总值的比例已经创下历史新低。

自从中国在1962年的边境战争中羞辱了印度以来,还没有哪届政府允许国防开支降到如此之低的水平,去年,这个数字还不到 GDP 的1.6% 。

Perhaps you think that, instead of defense, India is investing in its own people, as a 21st-century superpower should do? Well, only 3.4% of total federal spending was budgeted for education — down from 3.74% the previous year and from 4.3% when Modi took over in 2014. And the federal government and state governments together spend less than 1% of GDP on health, a fact which this budget did little to change.

也许你认为,印度正在投资于自己的人民,而不是国防,这不正是一个21世纪的超级大国应该做的吗?

好吧,只有3.4% 的联邦总开支用于教育预算,低于前一年的3.74% 和2014年莫迪上任时的4.3% ,而联邦政府和各邦政府在卫生方面的支出加起来还不到GDP的1%,这个预算几乎没有改变这一事实。




Balaji Viswanathan
Disagree with Point 5. Indians are far more open to accepting our problems than many other cultures. In fact, we have the problem in the reverse. Sometimes people get far too negative in cribbing too much.

不同意第五点,与其他文化相比,我们印度人更乐于接受我们的问题,事实上,我们的问题正好相反,有时候人们会因为重复太多而变得过于消极。



Mark Jefferis
Thanks for the feedback; I will give it some thought and discuss it with my family.

感谢反馈,我会考虑一下,并和我的家人讨论一下。



Toh Hong Chin
India can never be a superpower when Law & order are pee on & shit on. Women can never feel safe walking alone even in daylight,rapist are everywhere & seldom punish by law. Even in the capital New Delhi there are slums & people are peeing and shitting on the streets everywhere. The Govt are spending huge amount of money on military instead of education & even basic infrastructure. India is like a sick elephant with whole body of terminal illness & open wound. How can a country like this grow to become a first world nation & to become a superpower is the greatest joke of the century. Indian people living in India overall are not very high intelligence because those Indian with high education & Intelligence had already left the shit hole India & they are just 0.00001% of the whole population.

当法律与秩序被人唾弃,印度永远不可能成为一个超级大国。
女人即使在白天独自行走也感觉不到安全,强奸犯无处不在,很少受到法律的惩罚,甚至在首都新德里也有贫民窟,到处都有人在街上小便和拉屎,政府在军事上投入了大量资金,而不是教育甚至基础设施。

印度就像一头生病的大象,全身都是绝症和开放性伤口,这样一个国家怎么能成长为第一世界国家 & 成为超级大国,简直本世纪最大的笑话。

生活在印度的印度人总的来说智商不是很高,因为那些受过高等教育和有高智商的印度人已经离开了印度,他们只占印度总人口的0.00001% 。



Umesh Thakkar
A country that has the capacity to project dominating power and influence anywhere in the world, and sometimes, in more than one region of the globe at a time..; This is the definition of super-power.
Is India on way to become a super-power? Does sending people to Moon and Mars, boasting of a indigenous Military might, or 'Make in India' will make us a super power? Will they lead to economic might?
Economic might comes from the citizens! Citizens who are sincere, quality conscious and share common values and ideals. They need to produce more, more quality products.
And where do we stand in that?! Alas, we will never become a super power in our life time!
I am not a pessimist. I am an eternal optimist. But, then, I listen to numbers.
In a survey conducted recently, among the school and college kids in India, by a credible organisation that doesn't make money or masala out of surveys, we got this appalling evidences.
Consider these:
1. Only 8% of the boys believe in gender equality, and when they come to college, the numbers reduce to just 6%! Among the girls, it is 15% in school, and when they come to college, experience seems to reduce that number to 13%.
2. The kids who want to adhere to civil rules are just 15% and it comes down to 12% when they come to college! And do we expect this generation to build buildings without violations or not to bribe?
3. Only 21% of the children understand democratic citizenship, while it comes down to 20% in the college.
Now, do we expect this generation to be sincere, law abiding and productive? Isn't foolish to expect them not to give or take bribe? Isn't foolish to expect them to respect the women and treat them equal to bring out the potential of half of the population? Isn't foolish to expect them to build their homes without violations or produce quality stuff?
How can we compete with the world with such a generation? And i guess our generation is also equally bad if not worse! We hardly look for honest or gender sensitive boy for our daughters! Either they don't exist or they don't matter!
So, what do we do?
If we really want to change this country, our leaders need to go beyond the 5 year syndrome. They need to invest their time and money into the unglamorous social sector, come whatever may!
It begs for attention, in a major way. Nutrition, health and education. We pay lip service, and when it comes to budget, we yield to the lobbies. Never the lopsided policies of the govt were at sharp focus, as the recent 2015-16 budget was! The disquiet was high, as the expectations were more!
Are we still believing in the 'trickle down theory', and hence propping the India Inc? Yes, they need support, but not at the cost of the foundation on which they stand!
We need to invest hugely into nutrition, health and education. We need to lead the nation with a zeal to dream big on these basic issues!
With the demographic dividend slipping out of our hands, if we don't invest in the younger generation, will we take-off ever? We may very well crash and end up in chaos. Choice is ours; it's in the hands of the brave leaders we have elected.
Yes, in a democracy, long term policies are abandoned for short term vote bank strategies. But, then, our leaders need to be better than us? Isn't? If our leaders are as short-sighted as we are, then, even God can’t save this country.

一个国家有能力在世界任何地方投射出支配性的力量和影响力,有时还能同时在全球多个地区投射......这就是超级大国的定义。

印度正在成为超级大国的路上吗?把人送上月球和火星,吹嘘自己的军事力量,或者“印度制造”会让我们成为超级大国吗? 它们会带来经济上的强大吗?

经济力量来自于人民! 有诚信、有素质、有共同价值观和理想的公民,他们需要生产更多、更高质量的产品。

而我们在这一点上处于什么位置呢?!
唉,我们在有生之年绝不可能成为超级大国!

我不是一个悲观主义者,我是一个永远的乐观主义者,但是,我相信数据。

在最近的一项针对印度中小学生和大学生的调查中,我们得到了一些骇人听闻的证据。
1. 只有8% 的男孩相信性别平等,当他们来到大学,这个数字减少到只有6% ! 在女孩中,这个比例是15% ,而当她们进入大学时,经验似乎将这个比例降低到了13% 。
2.愿意遵守文明民事规则的孩子只有15% ,当他们来到大学时,这个数字降到了12% ! 我们能指望这一代人建造不违规的建筑还是不去行贿?
3. 孩子们懂得民主公民的只有21%,而到了大学就降到了20%。

现在,我们还指望这一代人诚信、守法、有为吗?期望他们不给贿赂或收受贿赂是不是很愚蠢? 期望他们尊重女性,平等地对待她们,激发一半人口的潜力,这难道不是愚蠢 ? 期望他们建造自己的房子而不违反规定或者生产高质量的东西,难道不愚蠢?
有这样的一代人,我们怎么能与世界竞争?我想我们这一代人如果不是更差的话,也是同样的差!

我们很难为我们的女儿找到诚实或对性别敏感的男孩! 这样的男孩要么不存在,要么无所谓 !
那么,我们该怎么办?
如果我们真的想要改变这个国家,我们的领导人任期需要超过5年,他们需要把时间和金钱投入到单调乏味的社会领域,无论发生什么!

营养、健康和教育,我们需要关注这些,我们我们口口声声说着,但当涉及到预算问题时,我就向游说集团屈服。
从来没有像最近的2015-16年度预算那样,政府的不平衡政策成为焦点! 随着期望越来越高,人们的不安也越来越高!

我们是否仍然相信“涓滴理论” ,从而支持印度公司?是的,他们需要支持,但不能以牺牲他们赖以生存的基础为代价!
我们需要在营养、健康和教育方面投入大量资金。 我们需要带着热情领导这个国家在这些基本问题上实现远大梦想!
人口红利日渐从我们手中溜走,如果我们不在年轻一代身上投资,我们还能腾飞吗?我们很可能会坠毁,最终陷入混乱。

选择权在我们手中,在我们选出的勇敢的领导人手中。
是的,在民主制度下,长期的政策会因为短期的票仓策略而被抛弃。
但是,我们的领导人必须要比我们普通人做的更好? 不是吗? 如果我们的领导人和我们一样目光短浅,那么,即使上帝也无法拯救这个国家。


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