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Special edition : Why isn't India a superpower ?
译者:unknown     发布时间:2020-11-10     超过 0 位网友阅读


Editor’s note :
Dear readers,
First a big thank you for the recent numbers on this blog which have been beyond my expectations (we had more than 5300 views as I’m writing this on the latest episode about “5G and why it’s not dangerous” that you can read here and the number of subscribers quadrupled)



Also, thank you to everyone that’s sharing the blog among their circle, I have seen some of you do that whether that’s on Facebook, public forums, Twitter, etc.
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Let’s dig into it.
India Versus China - Wasatch Global Investors
China is taking over, India ? Not so much.

《印度 vs 中国 》-华盛顿全球投资者
中国正在接管世界,印度呢? 还差的远。

India has the world's second largest population. The PGR for the country is 1.1. A very large number of India's population, about 50%, is below the age group of 24. This provides the nation with a large workforce for many decades, helping in its growth.

印度是世界上人口第二多的国家,这个国家的 PGR 是1.1,印度有很大一部分人口,大约50%,年龄在24岁以下,这为印度提供了数十年庞大的劳动力,有助于其经济增长。

More than 35 million Indians live across the globe. Under fair opportunities, they have become socio-economically successful— especially in the US and the UK where they are the highest earning ethnic demographic.


Since the start of the 21st century, annual average GDP growth has been 6% to 7%, and from 2014 to 2018, India was the world's fastest growing major economy, surpassing China. Historically, India was the largest economy in the world for most of the two millennia from the 1st until 19th century.

自21世纪初以来,印度的年均 GDP 增长率一直在6% 到7% 之间,从2014年到2018年,印度超过中国,成为世界上增长最快的主要经济体,从历史上看,从公元1世纪到19世纪,印度在两千年的大部分时间里都是世界上最大的经济体。

When will India have more people than China?
Editor’s note : Officially India’s population will surpass China’s very soon but it’s likely already the case.

编者按: 官方数据显示,印度的人口将很快超过中国,但事实上很可能已经超过了。

What is this demographic challenge? Well, an analysis of global population trends shows that over time, most likely by 2025, India will become the world’s most populous nation. But much of this growth is taking place in two states: Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. These two states are India’s largest and third largest states (with a combined population of 302m), but also India’s two poorest states (with a per capita income ranging from US$347 to US$450 a year). In this light, vibrant economic growth is unlikely to be sustainable in India. We are already witnessing the first signs of stagnation in the Indian economy.

这一人口统计学数字挑战何在? 一项全球人口趋势分析显示,随着时间的推移,很有可能到2025年,印度将成为世界上人口最多的国家,但这种增长主要发生在两个邦: 北方邦和比哈尔邦,这两个邦是印度第一大和第三大邦(总人口为3.02亿) ,但也是印度最贫穷的两个邦(人均年收入在347美元到450美元之间),这种情况下,印度充满活力的经济增长不太可能持续下去,我们已经看到了印度经济停滞的初步迹象。

Part II:
Editor’s note : The woman problem in India is a huge deal, whilst this is improving in big cities, it is still a major problem. In the word of Marx, a healthy society is one where Women and Men are equal. I find it paradoxical that India has a strong Marxist heritage and that the Women are so oppressed, Marxism is definitely pro-Women (Read here)


India is the most dangerous country in the world to be a woman, according to the Thomson Reuters Foundation, citing severely high risks of sexual violence and slave labour, including human trafficking for domestic work, forced labor, forced marriage, and sexual slavery.


In India, a rape occurs every 20 minutes, according to the New York Times, with minors being hit at an alarming rate. Five women are raped every day in Delhi alone, the nation’s capital. Delhi has not only the highest crime rate but also the highest rape rate, sitting at 40% relative to 19 major cities, according to India’s National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB).

据《纽约时报》报道,在印度,每20分钟就会发生一起强奸案,其中未成年人被强奸的比率惊人,仅在印度首都德里,每天就有5名妇女被强奸,根据印度国家犯罪记录局(NCRB)的数据,德里不仅是犯罪率最高的地方,也是强奸率最高的地方,德里不仅犯罪率最高,而且强奸率也最高,达到40% 。

India has the highest absolute number of child brides in the world — 15,509,000, according to UNICEF. 27% of girls in India are married off before their 18th birthday — consent or no consent — and 7% are married before the age of 15.

联合国儿童基金会(UNICEF)的数据显示,印度的童养媳绝对数量为全球最高,为1550.9万人,27% 的印度女孩在18岁生日之前结婚,7% 的女孩在15岁之前结婚。

Editor’s note : The gender gap is also a big problem. The root is mainly because a bride’s family must pay the groom’s family a large dowry of cash and gifts. To be perfectly frank, this is fucking stupid and I can’t believe it is still a thing.


So basically, for centuries, instead of mending their own ways, reconsidering their values, and reuating thier beliefs, many Indians think its better to just kill the girl, conveniently.


India is a country which has continuously underutilized its potential of the Ocean. She is sitting in the right above the busiest sea routes in the world yet doesn’t have a single transhipment hub. What I’m referring to here is the Heartland-Rimland Theory.


Not even for a single time in its history it has utilized it blue resources completely barring the Great Cholas – The Empire which controlled the Indian Ocean.
Now she needs to break from the old shackles and take some aggressive measures.


Editor’s note : Investments in infrastructures is still very much behind China. This picture would never happen in China.


Consider, for example, the treatment of India’s armed forces. Sitharaman barely mentioned defense spending (indeed, for much of the first half of her speech, she barely mentioned any numbers at all). Perhaps that was because the defense outlay has barely kept up with inflation for years, and under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reached record lows as a percentage of gross domestic product. Not since China humiliated India in a traumatic border war in 1962 has any government allowed defense spending to fall so low. Last year, it came in at less than 1.6% of GDP.

考虑一下印度军队的待遇,西塔拉曼几乎没有提及国防开支 ( 事实上,在她上半场演讲的大部分时间里,她几乎没有提及任何数字), 也许这是因为多年来国防支出几乎跟不上通货膨胀,而且在总理纳伦德拉 · 莫迪的领导下,国防支出占国内生产总值的比例已经创下历史新低。

自从中国在1962年的边境战争中羞辱了印度以来,还没有哪届政府允许国防开支降到如此之低的水平,去年,这个数字还不到 GDP 的1.6% 。

Perhaps you think that, instead of defense, India is investing in its own people, as a 21st-century superpower should do? Well, only 3.4% of total federal spending was budgeted for education — down from 3.74% the previous year and from 4.3% when Modi took over in 2014. And the federal government and state governments together spend less than 1% of GDP on health, a fact which this budget did little to change.


好吧,只有3.4% 的联邦总开支用于教育预算,低于前一年的3.74% 和2014年莫迪上任时的4.3% ,而联邦政府和各邦政府在卫生方面的支出加起来还不到GDP的1%,这个预算几乎没有改变这一事实。

Balaji Viswanathan
Disagree with Point 5. Indians are far more open to accepting our problems than many other cultures. In fact, we have the problem in the reverse. Sometimes people get far too negative in cribbing too much.


Mark Jefferis
Thanks for the feedback; I will give it some thought and discuss it with my family.


Toh Hong Chin
India can never be a superpower when Law & order are pee on & shit on. Women can never feel safe walking alone even in daylight,rapist are everywhere & seldom punish by law. Even in the capital New Delhi there are slums & people are peeing and shitting on the streets everywhere. The Govt are spending huge amount of money on military instead of education & even basic infrastructure. India is like a sick elephant with whole body of terminal illness & open wound. How can a country like this grow to become a first world nation & to become a superpower is the greatest joke of the century. Indian people living in India overall are not very high intelligence because those Indian with high education & Intelligence had already left the shit hole India & they are just 0.00001% of the whole population.


印度就像一头生病的大象,全身都是绝症和开放性伤口,这样一个国家怎么能成长为第一世界国家 & 成为超级大国,简直本世纪最大的笑话。

生活在印度的印度人总的来说智商不是很高,因为那些受过高等教育和有高智商的印度人已经离开了印度,他们只占印度总人口的0.00001% 。

Umesh Thakkar
A country that has the capacity to project dominating power and influence anywhere in the world, and sometimes, in more than one region of the globe at a time..; This is the definition of super-power.
Is India on way to become a super-power? Does sending people to Moon and Mars, boasting of a indigenous Military might, or 'Make in India' will make us a super power? Will they lead to economic might?
Economic might comes from the citizens! Citizens who are sincere, quality conscious and share common values and ideals. They need to produce more, more quality products.
And where do we stand in that?! Alas, we will never become a super power in our life time!
I am not a pessimist. I am an eternal optimist. But, then, I listen to numbers.
In a survey conducted recently, among the school and college kids in India, by a credible organisation that doesn't make money or masala out of surveys, we got this appalling evidences.
Consider these:
1. Only 8% of the boys believe in gender equality, and when they come to college, the numbers reduce to just 6%! Among the girls, it is 15% in school, and when they come to college, experience seems to reduce that number to 13%.
2. The kids who want to adhere to civil rules are just 15% and it comes down to 12% when they come to college! And do we expect this generation to build buildings without violations or not to bribe?
3. Only 21% of the children understand democratic citizenship, while it comes down to 20% in the college.
Now, do we expect this generation to be sincere, law abiding and productive? Isn't foolish to expect them not to give or take bribe? Isn't foolish to expect them to respect the women and treat them equal to bring out the potential of half of the population? Isn't foolish to expect them to build their homes without violations or produce quality stuff?
How can we compete with the world with such a generation? And i guess our generation is also equally bad if not worse! We hardly look for honest or gender sensitive boy for our daughters! Either they don't exist or they don't matter!
So, what do we do?
If we really want to change this country, our leaders need to go beyond the 5 year syndrome. They need to invest their time and money into the unglamorous social sector, come whatever may!
It begs for attention, in a major way. Nutrition, health and education. We pay lip service, and when it comes to budget, we yield to the lobbies. Never the lopsided policies of the govt were at sharp focus, as the recent 2015-16 budget was! The disquiet was high, as the expectations were more!
Are we still believing in the 'trickle down theory', and hence propping the India Inc? Yes, they need support, but not at the cost of the foundation on which they stand!
We need to invest hugely into nutrition, health and education. We need to lead the nation with a zeal to dream big on these basic issues!
With the demographic dividend slipping out of our hands, if we don't invest in the younger generation, will we take-off ever? We may very well crash and end up in chaos. Choice is ours; it's in the hands of the brave leaders we have elected.
Yes, in a democracy, long term policies are abandoned for short term vote bank strategies. But, then, our leaders need to be better than us? Isn't? If our leaders are as short-sighted as we are, then, even God can’t save this country.


印度正在成为超级大国的路上吗?把人送上月球和火星,吹嘘自己的军事力量,或者“印度制造”会让我们成为超级大国吗? 它们会带来经济上的强大吗?

经济力量来自于人民! 有诚信、有素质、有共同价值观和理想的公民,他们需要生产更多、更高质量的产品。



1. 只有8% 的男孩相信性别平等,当他们来到大学,这个数字减少到只有6% ! 在女孩中,这个比例是15% ,而当她们进入大学时,经验似乎将这个比例降低到了13% 。
2.愿意遵守文明民事规则的孩子只有15% ,当他们来到大学时,这个数字降到了12% ! 我们能指望这一代人建造不违规的建筑还是不去行贿?
3. 孩子们懂得民主公民的只有21%,而到了大学就降到了20%。

现在,我们还指望这一代人诚信、守法、有为吗?期望他们不给贿赂或收受贿赂是不是很愚蠢? 期望他们尊重女性,平等地对待她们,激发一半人口的潜力,这难道不是愚蠢 ? 期望他们建造自己的房子而不违反规定或者生产高质量的东西,难道不愚蠢?

我们很难为我们的女儿找到诚实或对性别敏感的男孩! 这样的男孩要么不存在,要么无所谓 !

从来没有像最近的2015-16年度预算那样,政府的不平衡政策成为焦点! 随着期望越来越高,人们的不安也越来越高!

我们是否仍然相信“涓滴理论” ,从而支持印度公司?是的,他们需要支持,但不能以牺牲他们赖以生存的基础为代价!
我们需要在营养、健康和教育方面投入大量资金。 我们需要带着热情领导这个国家在这些基本问题上实现远大梦想!

但是,我们的领导人必须要比我们普通人做的更好? 不是吗? 如果我们的领导人和我们一样目光短浅,那么,即使上帝也无法拯救这个国家。

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